re: #32 b.d.

There’s an awful lot of seats that would have to turn in on a very gerrymandered map

That’s the thing about gerrymandered maps. They help you keep seats you shouldn’t do….right up until the point when you start losing lots of votes at once.

Then, instead of 5 percent swing meaning just a few less seats, you can be looking at losing a huge swathe of supposedly ‘safe’ seats.

I have no idea if Trump is actually going to separate Republican voters from actually voting for the GOP. I think we’re going to be able to tell in the next week or two, when polls of the Republican field start coming in from after Rubio has “suspended” his campaign.

Trump has been on about 35% support for since the start of the year. With the other candidates dropping out he still hasn’t been able to get close to 50%. If he can’t even get to 50% of the Republican voters, he’s going to get annihilated in the general election, as well as suppressing GOP voter turnout, while massively increasing Democratic turnout.

Even if the Republican party doesn’t split, it is incredibly likely that the change in turnout will produce massive swings everywhere.