When you ask yourself why Hillary isn’t > x% ahead of Trump:

If you’re a major-party presidential nominee in this day and age in American politics, you’ve frankly got to work pretty hard to get less than 40 or even 45 percent of the vote. Because we’re just that partisan.

A presidential race has been decided by double digits only once since 1972. And since that Richard Nixon-reelecting landslide in ‘72, neither party has taken less than 40 percent of the vote in a two-candidate race. In fact, neither side has taken less than 45 percent in a two-candidate race since Ronald Reagan. (This excludes two of the past seven races, of course — both Bill Clinton victories featuring Ross Perot as an independent candidate. But it likely would have held up in Perot’s absence.)