re: #48 Belafon

thehill.com

If the stats are one-to-one, that makes her odds 50%, which is actually better than probably will be if she doesn’t become the first female VP. I don’t think Brown fully grasps the dynamics right now.

In the modern era (post-FDR), former VPs as nominees:

Nixon lost in 1960, won in 1968.
Humphery lost in 1968, ended up going back to the Senate
LBJ assumed the office after Kennedy’s assassination, so doesn’t really apply
Ford assumed the office after Nixon’s resignation, so also doesn’t really apply
Mondale got trounced in 1984
GHW Bush won in 1988
Quayle ran for president in 2000 for about 15 minutes
Gore lost in 2000
Cheney retired
Biden won the nomination in 2020 (after not running in 2016)

The tricky parts of this calculus are: will Biden actually only serve one term? What happens, despite the odds, if Trump pulls out a victory? What other future political ambitions does Harris have?

On that last point, before she ran for the Senate, there was some talk that she was eyeing the governor’s office here in California. Newsom is up for re-election in 2022, so realistically, the earliest she’d be able to seek that office is 2026 (unless Newsom’s approval falls out between now and 2022).