re: #60 EPR-radar

Indeed. I haven’t made a deep dive into the numbers, but nationwide it is impossible for the outbreak to be slowing down because social distancing hasn’t been in place long enough in enough of the country.

What is encouraging is that places in the country that have acted earliest are seeing some benefit from that.

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing

Scroll down a little ways for a very nice graph after long discussion of why this is important. I’m adding this to my bookmarks.

That said, it’s totally plausible that CA (especially!) and NY stomping hard on things could level off the acceleration, and the rest of the country will hot-spot it up to start things going. Honestly I feel like much of the country is at like 40%-60% social distancing. No way to judge if that’s enough, though the CDC transmission rate estimates this morning were a punch in the gut.