re: #57 austin_blue

Maybe. Take a look at this page, Figure 4.

wunderground.com

That is the nightmare scenario. That is what any ER coordinator worth his or her salt is counting on in designing an evacuation plan or human health and safety response.

You don’t plan on unicorns, you base your plan on large, black swan meteor strikes.

You don’t plan on unicorns is true enough. Weather Underground notes that it predicts maximum winds will be 210 in the Florida Straits. That would be a disaster for both Cuba and South Florida (I hear the money printing presses gearing up for Mar-a-Lago right now).

The problem is that pretty much all forecasters will tell you that you can’t “game out” what a hurricane will do with any accuracy after day five.

So while computer modelling after that time seems to indicate Florida needs to prepare, that doesn’t let Alabama west to Mexico off the hook.