re: #64 ckkatz

Jul22 wheat futures seem to be bouncing in a range, after the rapid March price jump (which is how the market adjusted for the invasion):

Just before the invasion, the USDA predicted US wheat planting would be up and that would drive down prices:
uswheat.org

These U.S. wheat highlights and USDA’s outlook for all U.S. agricultural products represent the first predictions for marketing year 2022/23. The new year for U.S. wheat starts June 1, 2022, and changes are to be expected. In addition, it is important to note that USDA’s outlook does not account for unknown potential effects of the conflict in Ukraine.

In the “Grains and Oilseeds Outlook for 2022,” USDA cited high current wheat prices and tight stocks to predict U.S. farmers will plant 48.0 million acres (19.43 hectares) to wheat for harvest in 2022. That is about 3% more than was planted for 2021. Using an assumption of normal spring planting and summer crop development conditions, USDA expects U.S. wheat prices will come down in 2022 with higher U.S. wheat production and ending stocks.

That article was printed just after the invasion.