To cheer everyone up, don’t forget that the studies foreseeing 5 months of containment are purely from an epidemiologic point of view. They don’t take into account, for example, progress in treatments that are now being trialed and will probably allow to starkly reduce the mortality rate and the number of people that need ICU treatment. Plus, once the propagation has been brought below a certain level, more complex strategies involving widespread testing, monitoring and localized quarantines, like in Vietnam, Taiwan and Singapore, might become possible again. Also we can expect the reopening of international travel with medical testing and medical certificates before and testing and/or self-quarantine upon arrival.

The effort now is not only to “flatten the curve” of the epidemic but also to have time to complete the trials of potential treatments and ramp up testing and monitoring capacities. Well, the potential treatments are known medications that are very cheap in Europe and in all countries with one form or another of “socialized health care”, but cost thousands in the US - same for the tests, that will eventually be available for free in most countries, but most probably not in the US. So the mortality of the epidemic in the US will paint a dramatic picture of health care inequalities. Plus, the time lost with Trump delaying the necessary measures will come at a high cost for the most vulnerable Americans. Health care reform will be one of the major tasks of the next president for sure. I say this without schadenfreude, just sadness.

Good luck from the current front (France)!