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Love-Child of Cassandra and Sisyphus4/06/2020 12:59:27 pm PDT

So the new IHME model, run on the 5th, has lowered the predicted US deaths by 4 August. The error bars have been tightened a bit too, but still are pretty large:

They explain in their release:

New IHME COVID-19 Forecasts Find Lower Hospital Bed Need, Epidemics starting to peak confirm social distancing works

Updated COVID-19 estimates find that need for hospital beds, ICU beds, and ventilators needed to deal with the COVID-19 epidemic are less than previously estimated.

The revised forecasts reflect “a massive infusion of new data,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, Director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine. New data on COVID-19 health service use from multiple US states, including New York, Massachusetts, Georgia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Florida, and California, has led to revisions down in estimated need to deal with the pandemic.

In addition, estimation of the likely peak of the epidemic in each state has been strengthened by epidemics peaking after social distancing in seven more locations internationally.


Murray noted that for patients who do not require ICU services, their length of stay has gone down, but for those who need ICU services, the length of stay has increased. Estimated demand for ICU beds and ventilators is also influenced by the longer length of stay for patients who survive. Lower numbers of required hospital beds may also reflect triage practices in over-stretched hospital systems, such as New York’s, where some moderately ill patients cannot be admitted because of demand for hospital beds.


Murray, however, cautioned that, “As we noted previously, the trajectory of the pandemic will change - and dramatically for the worse - if people ease up on social distancing or relax with other precautions. Our projections are strengthened by the new downturns in more regions. This is evidence that social distancing is crucial. Our forecasts assume that social distancing remains in place until the end of May.”


“Our estimates assume statewide social distancing measures are continuing in states where they have already been enacted, and for those states without such measures in place, it is assumed they will be will be in place within seven days,” Murray said. “If social distancing measures are relaxed or not implemented, the US will see greater death tolls, the death peak will be later, the burden on hospitals will be much greater, and the economic costs will continue to grow.”