re: #50 Hecuba’s daughter

If there are too many sensible alternatives, they can knock each other out, leaving the field to the top 2 crazy candidates. It doesn’t always end as well as the primary race for the California Senate, especially in a district that has repeatedly voted Republican. It’s analogous to what happened in the Republican primary for the state legislature in my state district many years ago. The 2 sensible women who shared similar views each received about 32% of the vote, while the male religious fanatic won about 36% (numbers aren’t precisely right — but you get the idea). He would have been trounced if only one of the women ran. If, for example, the 7 D candidates each get about 10% of the vote, Rohrabacher (Russia) could get 15% and the Libertarian 15%, leaving the Dems out in the cold, even though if 2 ran, they could each have gotten 35%.

The Libertarian isn’t going to get much more than 2-3% (there wasn’t even a Libertarian on the primary ballot last year). My guess is that if Rohrabacher looks to be in trouble (say, primary polling below 45%), the CAGOP will find someone else to get on the ballot. The district is still R+7, so I’m sure they’ll be able to find someone. If not, the real number to watch will be Rohrabacher’s primary percentage - he got 56% in the primary last year and 58% in the general (when turnout came close to doubling).