re: #76 Big Beautiful Door

Regradless, the most likely scenario is Trump resigning under pressure and Pence replacing him, unless Mueller comes up with damning evidence against Pence. The good news is that the GOP would be crippled by the scandal, just like Watergate, and a Democratic President is a near certainty in 2020.

I really don’t think that’s the most likely scenario at all. The most likely scenario is that nothing really happens at all, because the most powerful institutions in the country - the mass media and the wealthy - have vested interest in maintaining the power structure exactly how it is. Cable TV gets lots of viewers, plutocrats get increasing wealth and power, and the people are fed a steady diet of conflict as entertainment.

Recall that the only reason this is any sort of scandal is that Trump literally cannot shut up and say what he’s told for even a few hours. Every time there is clear evidence of wrongdoing on the part of Republicans, even to the point of brazenly taking away rights, money, and justice from the American people and admitting to it, the cult media comes out with an array of lockstep talking points that instantly convince 50% of the nation that it’s totally okay, and the rest of the US media obligingly parrots it as a valid point of view. If Trump had simply repeated that Comey was fired because Clinton email arglebargle, a justification so baldly false it defies belief, that would have been repeated endlessly throughout every medium and that would be the official narrative today. Even when Trump is eventually no longer President, that will continue to be the way of things in America until something is done about the cult media and its power over the American narrative.

Most likely, the special counsel will spend several months investigating the situation, and someone, probably Flynn, will be brought down in a similar manner to how Oliver North paid the price for administrative wrongdoing thirty years ago. That’s it. Flynn, or whoever it is, will then go on to a well paid job at FOX and that will be the end of it. FOX will claim victory and vindication and the American people will agree.

The unfortunate reality is that Republicans know that they don’t have to do anything, or worry about anything, because electoral wins at this point are essentially guaranteed for them. They will retain control of the Senate in two years because Democrats cannot mathematically win it. They will almost certainly retain control of the House. They will retain control of the Presidency. And, unless something drastic changes in the media landscape of the US, they will win the Presidency again in 2020, especially if Trump runs again. There’s no incentive for Republican politicians to buck their party or the system. Their jobs, and their power structure, are safe, because the system that has brought about their ascendancy is too vulnerable to being manipulated by the people in power to perpetuate it.