re: #73 e_e

Do you agree with this particular part? I think earlier you argued that Iran is not a rational actor, unlike USSR, so comparison would be incorrect. (Sorry if I’m confusing something.)

I think the article downplays that a bit. There is a religious angle here. The regime isn’t suicidal now but they could easily become so. If things change and the religious zealots see and end times prophecy coming they could decide to unleash hell.
A couple other issues the article doesn’t discuss: Islamic religious support for suicide bombings originated in Iran during the war with Iraq. There is religious support for killing yourself to kill others. Also Iran is now the world’s leading supporter of international terrorism. This opens the possibility of giving their terror proxies (hamas, Hezbollah) materials they otherwise wouldn’t have access to such as radioactive material for dirty bombs. They would feel more free to do things like this if they had a nuclear deterrent at home.
A nuclear Iran would also complicate Israeli decisions to take action in Gaza and Lebanon. With nuclear armed Iranian protectors Hamas and Hezbollah would certainly feel safer to escalate conflicts.
It would be a mess.