NYT is predicting Northam up by 5.5% Not actual counted votes but “our best guess for how many votes both candidates will end up with when all votes are counted…

nytimes.com
Right now, our most likely estimates span Northam +12 to Gillespie +1.9. The darker region shows the middle 50 percent of our forecasts. The more we know, the narrower our range will be.