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Mideast Instability: Is That Such a Bad Thing?

Wed, Apr 21, 2004 at 9:45:07 pm PDT

Mark Steyn says the status quo was not working—more than that, it had become dangerous—and the solution might be more Mideast instability.

In the summer of 2002, Amr Moussa, secretary-general of the Arab League, issued a stern warning to the BBC: a US invasion of Iraq would “threaten the whole stability of the Middle East.” As I wrote at the time, “He’s missing the point: that’s the reason it’s such a great idea.”

I thought about Mr. Moussa a lot this past week. I was invited to speak at the United States Naval Academy’s foreign affairs conference, a great honor for a foreigner. I wasn’t the star attraction – that was Condoleezza Rice; I was merely a warm-up act.

Anyway, I was struck by a phrase in Dr. Rice’s address that I don’t believe I’ve heard her use before. She was talking about the fourth plane on September 11th, Flight 93, the one that crashed into a field in Pennsylvania en route to destroy either the Capitol or the White House. If it had reached the latter, that would have been the “money shot” that day, as it was in the alien-invasion flick Independence Day – the center of American power reduced to rubble. What happened on 9/11, said Rice, was an attempt to “decapitate us.” If not for quirks of flight scheduling and al-Qaida personnel management, the headlines would have included “The Vice-President is still among the missing, presumed dead” or – if they’d got really lucky – that the presidency had passed to the president pro tem of the Senate, octogenarian West Virginia Democrat, porkmeister and former Klansman Robert Byrd.

In other words, if you’re wondering why this administration’s approach to terrorism is so focused on regime change, it’s because the terrorists came so close to changing America’s regime.

They’ve since managed to change Spain’s. So why should the traffic be all one way? About two weeks after 9/11, I came to the conclusion that almost anything was better than Moussa’s much-vaunted “stability.” The fetishization of stability was a big part of the problem.

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59 comments

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1 FH  Wed, Apr 21, 2004 7:50:05pm

The status quo was unacceptable. We have changed the status quo, and will continue to do so, until the status quo is acceptable.

2 dan rudy  Wed, Apr 21, 2004 7:52:11pm

first?

>Reprisal attacks?


OT

Ohh...the rocket attacks were reprisal attack ?? What were they called before Israel took out Rantisi...pre-emptive rocket attacks?

Israeli Troops Kill Nine in Gaza After Reprisals
Wed Apr 21, 3:53 PM ET Add World - Reuters to My Yahoo!

By Nidal al-Mughrabi

BEIT LAHIYA, Gaza Strip (Reuters) - Israeli troops killed nine Palestinians, the youngest 13 years old, in a raid into Gaza Wednesday to stop reprisal rocket attacks for the assassination of a Hamas leader.

3 J.D.  Wed, Apr 21, 2004 7:52:26pm

Brilliant.

What a 'warm-up act'!

4 MikeO  Wed, Apr 21, 2004 7:55:31pm

Excellent editorial. Steyn is so good! No wonder he really irritates our LLL opponents.

5 Moe Katz  Wed, Apr 21, 2004 7:58:09pm

Depends on what you end up with when the dust settles, doesn't it? If the new equilibrium turns out to be islamofascism in many of the countries of the ME I don't see how that could be counted a success.

6 transferthem  Wed, Apr 21, 2004 7:58:17pm

The arab league's quest is for stability that maintains their corrupt and unintelligent leaders in power. Of course the arab league (a league in which the arabs surely come bottom each season) hates instability.

I bet mubarak, asad, the beirut puppets and a lot of others are shifting uncomfortably in their seats as a result of 'instability'.

7 Sean Crowley  Wed, Apr 21, 2004 8:00:36pm

Concluding that "destabalizing" is a bad thing without asking what is the existing condition of the object being "destabalized" in the first place is inane.

Can you imagine a car mechanic worrying about "destabalizing" a car because he had to change the brakes to make the car operable? Or a surgeon worrying about "destabalizing" a patient with heart diease by providing a transplant?

If it's broke? Fix it! The Middle East is broken. Stability when something is broken is dangerous.

8 really grumpy big dog Johnson  Wed, Apr 21, 2004 8:01:39pm

As long as there is a single standing dictatorship radicalizing Muslims in order to deflect public anger from the misdeeds of the fascist government of that country, I want zero stability in the Middle East.

If the people of KSA go to sleep at night wondering if the sun will rise in the east the next morning, that is a very good thing, at least to me.

The ME status quo says that we should all appease the rulers of their various renegade regimes, hate Israel, hate Jews wherever they are found, and leave those countries the hell alone except for the usual corruptions of business and liberal foreign aid to assist in keeping the puppet rulers in power.

Screw 'em. Throw gasoline on those fires.

9 twisterella  Wed, Apr 21, 2004 8:21:42pm

Really grumpy: Are you feeling better about things? Swampwoman and I were about to invite you for a drink in the bikerbar last night, when I accidentally feel asleep.

I think you are absolutely correct-- instability in the ME is a good thing. Stability there always seems to mean overlord. :-)

10 Snard  Wed, Apr 21, 2004 8:31:12pm

Correct, as usual, Mr. Steyn!

11 Egfrow  Wed, Apr 21, 2004 8:32:31pm

#7 Sean Crowley

Stability when something is broken is dangerous.

Very well said!

12 Moe Katz  Wed, Apr 21, 2004 8:43:43pm

I see I'm a minority of one here but I wish I were as sanguine as you folks in your belief that it isn't possible to make things worse.

13 QuantumThnk  Wed, Apr 21, 2004 8:47:50pm

On June 6, 1944, we destabilized Europe, how bad was that?

14 J.D.  Wed, Apr 21, 2004 8:48:54pm
An Internet group administered by Yahoo where as long ago as Dec. 2003 Islamic militants discussed the possibility of a terrorist attack designed to affect the Spanish general election has closed.

In a March 2004 Agence France Press (AFP) story, the news agency reported that Britain's Channel 4 News revealed that a Dec. 10 posting on Yahoo's 6,500 member strong Global Islamic Media (GIM), which had previously carried statements purporting to be from Al-Qaeda affiliates, suggested that attacks could help bring about a Socialist election victory and the withdrawal of Spain's troops from Iraq.

According to Channel 4 News, the GIM posting was issued under the name of the Centre for Services to the Mujahideen and read, "The approaching general elections in Spain in March next year must be exploited to the extreme. We think that the Spanish government will not stand more than two blows, or three at the most, before it will be forced to withdraw (from Iraq) because of the public pressure on it. If its forces remain after these blows, the victory of the Socialist party will be almost guaranteed, and the withdrawal of Spanish forces will be on its campaign manifesto."

Another Yahoo Group Advises Muslims To Waste FBI Time And Resources

15 Orbit Rain  Wed, Apr 21, 2004 9:07:13pm

Shaking things up is a good thing, we have a pretty good track record long-term.( e.g. Germany, Japan) I see our resolve growing stronger as time progresses. We will not fail.

Yes, we will kill those who wish to kill us. We will bend the world to our aim of peace. We will prevail....but some miracles don't happen over night...and some people can't see past their nose...

...and some are of little faith.

16 DaninVan  Wed, Apr 21, 2004 9:08:58pm

That D-Day allusion is just silly. There hadn't been any stability in Europe since 1939. It took the US a f**king long time to abandon their isolationist policy and join the 'instability'. Hitler COUNTED on the US staying out of the fight. And THAT's the lesson to be learned. Apparently France and the other appeasement Nations have severe memory loss.

17 Sean Crowley  Wed, Apr 21, 2004 9:20:58pm

#12 Moe Katz

I see I'm a minority of one here but I wish I were as sanguine as you folks in your belief that it isn't possible to make things worse.

Two thoughts, 1) that's the thinking that had us leave Saddam in power in 1991, leading to the deaths of hundreds of thousands. It's time to take the risk.

2) Worse? Worse? How could it get any worse?
/Monty Python

18 Rev. Churchmouse  Wed, Apr 21, 2004 10:12:25pm

Could the intervention in Iraq make things worse?
Sure.

Would failing to intervene have made them better? I wasn't able to muster that level of prophetic sanguinosity.

Mr Steyn was rather plain-spoken there wasn't he? Doesn't leave you wondering too much what he "really thinks."

Very impolitic, I guess, but I can't quarrel with him.

19 allan  Wed, Apr 21, 2004 10:15:11pm

Mark Steyn writes with commonsense and purpose but even he fails to press the obvious point: we are at war. When you are at war you either win or lose and to win is better.

Terrorists know it is a war and they play it to win. They don't mind blowing up 10 preschoolers in a bus or using kids to cover their assassins in the streets.

The middle east has never been stable and it has never been democratic. People in the West or Asia know that democracy breeds peace. Paraphrasing Winston Churchill: there's a lot wrong with democracy, it just beats the hell of the alternatives.

True stabilisation of the middle east may be achieved with democracy (it may not) its the only real card we can play and given the entrenched interests it will only happen with regime change.

With democracy and proper and active institutions such as schools and police, it is likely that these terrorists will disappear and maybe have to get a job?

20 Rayra Johnson  Wed, Apr 21, 2004 10:33:53pm
#12 Moe Katz 4/21/2004 10:43PM PST
I see I'm a minority of one here but I wish I were as sanguine as you folks in your belief that it isn't possible to make things worse.

Who the hell is "sanguine"? Considering 30yrs of arabist / Islamist terrorism, thousands dead, and their mad mullahs and co-religionists working on WMD - HOW THE HELL CAN IT BE ANY "WORSE"??
The only way it gets "worse" is to do NOTHING while Saddam continued his illicit arms programs; while Iranian ayatollahs continue their march towards nuclear weapons.
Take out the leaders and the mad mullahs. Disrupt their structures. Overturn their theocracies / totalitarian regimes. Break their Toys.
And KEEP breaking them.

21 brian  Wed, Apr 21, 2004 11:07:56pm

'The only way it gets "worse" is to do NOTHING while Saddam continued his illicit arms programs'

speaking of illicits arms programs, lets not forget the israeli nuclear arms program, revealed to the world by Vanunu.

'Mad mullahs' is the purest antisemitism

keep breaking them? Thats what makes the mullahs 'mad'.

Rayra Johnson is a sad case of a mad american.

22 edy  Thu, Apr 22, 2004 12:04:35am

i read that the bush administration is back-tracking on its promise and statement to Sharon--Colin Powell says the return question and solution should be mutually agreed on.
what is that?

23 MRoberts  Thu, Apr 22, 2004 12:24:04am

Steyn is a racist.

Let's hope that the corrupt Conrad Black won't be able to pay his salary any more.

24 SoCalJustice  Thu, Apr 22, 2004 12:29:35am
'Mad mullahs' is the purest antisemitism

I suppose if one doesn't know what anti-Semitism means, one might come to that conclusion.

25 zombie  Thu, Apr 22, 2004 12:46:03am

Semi-OT:

Speaking of an unstable Middle East -- Mordechai Vanunu was released from prison today. He actually increased Middle East stability (in a good way) by revealing to the Muslims that Israel has enough nukes to make them all very very sorry if they ever tried anything stupid. Anyway, in wonderful San Francisco, we of course had to have a rally celebrating Vanunu's release. Really. And I was the only person there recording the event! Yes, another zombie exclusive: zombie's photo essay of the pro-Mordechai Vanunu rally in San Francisco on April 21st. Worth a click -- it's not what you expect!

26 JG  Thu, Apr 22, 2004 1:46:56am

#22 and #23

GAZE

27 Son of a Pig and a Monkey  Thu, Apr 22, 2004 2:17:33am

#21

You are a tool.

Pray tell us what is illicit about Israel's supposed nuclear weapons. Unlike Iran, Iraq, and Pakistan, Israel is not a signatory to NPT and accordingly did not benefit from Western technology in any aspect of nuclear program.

The problem with people like you is that you are so ingorant of the facts and yet feel that you should be allowed to express your "valuable" opinions to everyone else and be believed.

28 nhop  Thu, Apr 22, 2004 2:50:06am

@27 pig&monkey

Actually Pakistan isnt a signatory to the NPT either. (same goes for India)

29 Seymour Paine  Thu, Apr 22, 2004 2:53:49am

As usual, insightful and thought-provoking.

What happened on 9/11, said Rice, was an attempt to “decapitate us.”


I'm not sure what to make of this. First, I think it is true. But what to make of the big switcheroo: AQ attacks us, and we (after very properly going into Afghanistan) attack Iraq, a country with no relation to AQ, unlike, say, oh, uh, Saudi Arabia, or Pakistan (ISI)? That Bush, our "President," would use this horrible attack on us for some weird, perhaps personal, vendetta, nauseates me. I could perhaps forgive the rest, the savaging of our economy, of our environment, his rampant bigotry, his childish posturing, if only he hadn't sapped our strength in this dangerous time.

Protecting the Saudis is obviously of greater importance to Bush than his oath of office.

30 teacake  Thu, Apr 22, 2004 3:03:05am

JG - #22 is right. THe Jpost has an article about it and its disturbing.

31 john jay  Thu, Apr 22, 2004 3:13:26am

How would Iraq fare if the Iranian and Syrian governments were decapatated? The US would have to enter Iran and destroy it's nuclear capability. I don't know if this is possible or plausible. I would assume it can be done, but there would be some casualties and no assurance that the entire nuclear capability was destroyed.

Does the present continued threat by the US to Iranian/Syrian leadership have any power of deterrence? I am of the belief that it does not, but I don't have much information.

Would putting Syria and Iran in turmoil cause Saudia Arabia to collapse? While I don't mind the thought of Saudi Arabia falling, I think it's doing a reasonably good job tracking down terrorists at the moment. It's worth keeping around until it stops producing information.

Would we be responsible for rebuilding Syria or Iran? Syria--I think not. Iran? Maybe. Would this cause problems on the Iranian/Afghani border--or problems with Iranian forces interferring in Afghanistan? Not conceivably more than at present.

How serious a threat is the Hezbollah to the US/Britain? Are they a deterrent to our acting against Iran at the time of our choosing?

32 genard  Thu, Apr 22, 2004 4:20:13am

Middle East? Worse? How can it be worse?

Of course it can be worse and will be. But it's not only the Middle East, it's the entire world order.

On the one side is George's Bush's concept of individual rights and pluralistic society, on the other is the dream of the world collective; the free society vs totalitarianism; good vs evil.

Time to choose.

33 dhimmi smits  Thu, Apr 22, 2004 4:20:48am

bingo! steyn again hits it on the head. the idea that a status quo should be maintained simply because it is the status quo is absurd - this is especially true in the middle east, where change is antithetical to both islam and the despotic regimes that populate the area. shake the tree!

34 David Simon  Thu, Apr 22, 2004 4:31:08am

#12 Moe Katz - Instability is only part of the solution. We need an alternative fuel source. Take away the oil money, and the "ummah" becomes another Liberia, Haiti or Rwanda - a dangerous place, but only to those who have to live there.

35 Andjam  Thu, Apr 22, 2004 4:39:19am

the presidency had passed to the president pro tem of the Senate, octogenarian West Virginia Democrat, porkmeister and former Klansman Robert Byrd.

Shudder... That would have been something for the song "Where is the love?".

Would Byrd have been first-in-line after the VP?

Can you change it to governor of the most populous state of the Union? (Yeah yeah, I know, native-born citizens only)

36 pragmatist  Thu, Apr 22, 2004 4:47:24am

It is the age old idea of "stirring the pot".

So lets add to the mix.

What if Israel gives the Saud family in the
KSA accurate warning of the next terror
attack in Riyadh? Will they respond the
same way Sadat did when Begin informed
him of a coup attempt?

37 rumcrook  Thu, Apr 22, 2004 4:47:52am

seymour, you live in a bubble of your own making.... no logical argument could sway you from your invective.

and the same goes for brian, wow any less critical thinking skills and both of you would be falling off of a turnip truck...

38 Geepers  Thu, Apr 22, 2004 4:50:56am

SoCalJustice (#24),

I suppose if one doesn't know what anti-Semitism means, one might come to that conclusion.

To which brian will smugly spew "But Arabs are Semitic peoples too!"

psst, brian, Iranians are Persians. Putz.

39 lawhawk  Thu, Apr 22, 2004 5:00:32am

Dang, I go away to California for a couple of days in a trip to LA, Joshua Tree NP, and SD (lots of pix of Joshua Tree will be pending upload) and the Israelis nail Rantisi and a couple more countries flake out of the coalition because they're scared they'll be hit by terrorists who will hit them anyways at the time and place of their choosing.

Good news and bad news. SS/DD

As for the matter at hand, stability as a theoretical concept is a great idea and that's why State has always sought to maintain stability. It makes their job as diplomats easier when you're always dealing with the same people, same issues, and expect consistent responses.

In reality, stability can be a good thing, a bad thing, or both.

Stability sucks when you're living under a corrupt and decadent regime that pilfers every last dime made and doesn't care one whit about the people.

Stability is good for the leader of that country since he's (and it's almost always a he in the Arab/Muslim world) not worried about anything other than collecting his next endowment from the UN food for oil program or stashing away billions for personal excesses. As a matter of US foreign policy, stability is a good thing when the nations involved are decent regimes, not sponsoring terrorism, democratically elected on a consistent basis, and have similar outlooks over human rights and international norms and conventions.

Stability in US foreign policy stinks when it purposefully overlooks regimes funding terrorism or casting a blind eye to the terrorists working covertly, overtly, or condoned by the governments with whom the US does business. That was the case with US foreign policy towards the Middle East. It overlooked the problems with terrorist funding in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Iran, and other nations around the world for years. Hundreds of Americans died at the hands of these terrorists and the US looked the other way since the stability that the US sought was meant to protect a steady supply of oil from the region that feeds the global economy.

Yet, that stability has done nothing to strengthen US national security or secure the flow of oil. These nations can continue to alter the flow of oil and use the proceeds from the sale of oil to fund terrorist groups, including al Qaeda, Hizbullah, and others.

Creating instability among the regional players may increase US national security in a way that stability never could, since it may lead to new solutions to old problems, including the Palestinian Israeli conflict. Without the oil players being able to play their games, without the Palestinians unable to obtain the funding they need to launch their terrorist attacks, their ability to kill Israelis is lessened and the Israelis are that much closer to winning the war in a decisive manner. Instead of imposing a peace that will not give the Israelis the security they need, the Israelis may actually win a peace that will secure their existence for years to come because the Palestinian leadership will have no other choice but to accept it.

40 rumcrook  Thu, Apr 22, 2004 5:04:59am

Geepers thier ya go ruining all the fun of watching him step on it. now that he's clued in he wont display his ignorance for our amusement....

aaaahhh what am I talking about guy's like that wont be detered with shinning light on thier shtuupidity.

41 Geepers  Thu, Apr 22, 2004 5:13:32am

rumcrook, I know, but I have no patience for this one. Cut him off at the knees. He's proud of his stupidity.

42 brianstien  Thu, Apr 22, 2004 5:15:44am
If not for quirks of flight scheduling and al-Qaida personnel management, the headlines would have included "The Vice-President is still among the missing, presumed dead" or – if they'd got really lucky – that the presidency had passed to the president pro tem of the Senate, octogenarian West Virginia Democrat, porkmeister and former Klansman Robert Byrd.

Holy crap. That hadn't occurred to me until just now.

#19 allan

When you are at war you either win or lose and to win is better.

Absolutely. Or, put another way: "I would make this war as severe as possible, and show no symptoms of tiring till the South begs for mercy. "
- William Tecumseh Sherman

43 Frank IBC  Thu, Apr 22, 2004 5:24:16am

Brianstein -

No. The presidency would have returned to Al Gore, with the usurper from Texas out of the picture.

/LLL

44 Promethea  Thu, Apr 22, 2004 5:29:35am

#25 zombie . . .

Loved your Vanunu photo essay. Thanks!

45 Cornholio: I have a gub  Thu, Apr 22, 2004 5:30:28am

Isn't the phrase

“money shot”

commonly used in a certain cinematic context that has nothing to do with terrorism ? :-o

46 Son ofa Pig and a Monkey  Thu, Apr 22, 2004 6:05:13am

#45

Oh do tell, "Cornholio"

47 Moe Katz  Thu, Apr 22, 2004 6:25:08am

#34 David Simon:

#12 Moe Katz - Instability is only part of the solution. We need an alternative fuel source. Take away the oil money, and the "ummah" becomes another Liberia, Haiti or Rwanda - a dangerous place, but only to those who have to live there.

David, those who "have to live there" includes a certain Zionist Entity, which my Rand McNally's Atlas tells me isn't located next to Luxembourg.

48 Frank IBC  Thu, Apr 22, 2004 6:31:49am

#25 Zombie -

Geez, that's even less than the total membership of Neturai Karta. (Seems to be the same five @$$holes at every single demonstration.)

Hmmm...the Baby Shoes of Death should be coming by any moment now...

49 Moe Katz  Thu, Apr 22, 2004 6:36:50am

#23:

Steyn is not a racist, but you would probably so classify anyone that isn't a post-modernist. Where Steyn errs, in my opinion, is that---unlike the brilliant Bernard Lewis---he fails to understand the subtle blend of cultural sensitivity and butt-kicking that is required for dealing with the Muslim Arab culture.

50 Toby Petzold  Thu, Apr 22, 2004 6:38:44am

Steyn is just great. I need to read him more often.

By the way, I'm pretty sure that the President Pro Tem of the Senate on 11 September 2001 was Strom Thurmond. Is that right?

But I thought that if the President and Vice President were killed that the Presidency would go to the Speaker of the House of Representatives. Dennis Hastert would have become President that day. President Pro Tem is next in line.

Can someone check me on that?

51 gnostic surface  Thu, Apr 22, 2004 6:42:45am

The order of presidential succession (if the Vice President is also dead) is first to the Speaker of the House of Representatives, then to the President pro tempore of the Senate, then to the Secretary of State, Defense, etc. in the order of establishment of their departments. Thus, in Mr. Steyn's example, President Bush, Vice President Cheney, and Speaker Hastert are presumed to have been killed in order to reach the true obscenity of President Kleagle. I assume that each of these individuals would also have to satisfy the other constitutional requirements for the office of President, i.e. native-born citizen and over 35 years old.

52 Toby Petzold  Thu, Apr 22, 2004 7:03:03am

Thanks for that, gnostic surface. I was too lzay to go and make sure for myself.

53 Moe Katz  Thu, Apr 22, 2004 8:25:28am

This piece by David Frum in NRO highlights some of the dangers facing western bulls in middle eastern china shops.

54 David Simon  Thu, Apr 22, 2004 8:43:54am

David, those who "have to live there" includes a certain Zionist Entity

uh Moe, as far as I know, Israel isn't part of the ummah.

My point is that if you take away the petrodollars - remember, the USSR sugardaddy is gone - you take away the stability. Take away the stability and they'll be too busy fighting each other to be much of a threat to anybody else.

55 mustrum  Thu, Apr 22, 2004 10:30:24am

#54
Hell, why stop a rolicking good fight just because there is no enemy left? haha

Anyways, here os something OT, but interesting on the al-Reuteseera service Sudan resolution.

I hate what Europe has become, even though this step is more or less in the right direction.

56 Moe Katz  Thu, Apr 22, 2004 12:32:43pm

Come on, David, where do you think Jerusalem is?

57 David Simon  Thu, Apr 22, 2004 1:39:15pm

Moe, I'm not sure what you're point is. Israel has always been an oasis in the middle of a sewer. And it has kicked the ass of every Arab country dumb enough to attack it. I don't know if there will ever be peace in the Middle East. I do know that there will never be peace as long as the current group of plutocrats continues to reign. Sure, the replacement despots could be worse; that's why we have to neutralize them.

I repeat, take away their oil wealth (yes, I know; easier said than done), and they won't be a threat to anyone. Anyone who takes control of a chaotic - and indigent - country will be so busy worrying about the next coup, he won't have the time or the resources to threaten his neighbors.

If you have a better idea, I'm listening.

58 Toby Petzold  Thu, Apr 22, 2004 2:27:10pm

I can't tell from Steyn's article, but did Dr. Rice use the phrase "money shot" in that speech or is that Steyn saying that? For the sake of my own amusement, I am hoping that it was Rice, but I doubt it.

59 Moe Katz  Thu, Apr 22, 2004 3:20:22pm

David, I'm saying the most promising future for the Arabs, for Israel, and for the world at large will be brought about by helping them develop their economies and modernize their societies---which means not polarizing the situation unnecessarily to the point where you have even Sunnis and Shiites uniting against you, as we now see in both Iraq and Israel (with Hezbollah helping Hamas). Sure, there is a place for kicking ass, but that isn't the only thing. Read Pipes, read Lewis.


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