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-RetweetNIE Report: Iran Has Shelved Nuke Program

Mon, Dec 3, 2007 at 10:40:33 am PST

A new National Intelligence Estimate has been declassified, with a surprising finding: NIE Report: Iran Halted Nuclear Weapons Program Years Ago.

I’m probably not the only one at this point with less than total confidence in American intelligence services; but note that although the report says Iran has “shelved” their program, it still estimates that they would be technically capable of producing enough enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon within two years. Don’t you feel reassured now?

ABC News’ Martha Raddatz, Jonathan Karl, Luis Martinez and Kirit Radia Report: In a stunning reversal of Bush administration conventional wisdom, a new assessment by U.S. intelligence agencies concludes Iran shelved it’s nuclear weapons program over four years ago.

“We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program,” reads a declassified version of the National Intelligence Estimate key findings. “We judge with moderate confidence that the earliest possible date Iran would be technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium (HEU) for a weapon is late 2009.”

The entire NIE report will remain classified, however the office of the Director of National Intelligence released a declassified version of the key findings that can be read HERE.

Also see:
The Strata-Sphere: Iran Halted Nuclear Weapons Production in 2003? How Convenient!

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276 comments

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1 ctrlL  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:42:01am

Late 2009 is too early for me ...

2 JamesTKirk  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:42:52am

And this report was written by ... Morgan Fairchild. Yeah, that's the ticket.

3 Defector01  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:43:02am

Sounds like they mothballed their nuke program but if given the go ahead they could get it going quickly

Maybe that's the plan - put all the pieces together one by one and when they're all in place, THEN start really cranking out nuclear weapons.

Too many countries make the big publicized steps without actually bothering to put it all together.

4 NJDhockeyfan  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:43:56am

So they stopped the nuke program like the Norks did under the Clintons?

5 Kragar (Proud to be Kafir)  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:44:10am

Well, I'm glad thats done with. Off to slander American troops and bully Israel.

/Dem and UN mode

6 Ackomanyuki  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:44:48am

Yes they shelved their Nuke program and began the next day with a physics project named, "Dhikr ul Mehdi" (Remembrance of the Mahdi)

7 Iron Fist[deleted]  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:45:05am
8 Fast Eddie  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:45:08am

It doesn't matter what happens in the future. Regardless of events, somebody will be able to dig out an old NIE that predicted exactly whatever it was that just happened.

Never underestimate the ability of bureaucrats to cover their butts.

9 Fenway_Nation  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:45:15am

Feign compliance long enough to erode the possibility of heavy-duty sanctions and start from there?

10 Ziggy  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:45:26am

The report was either written/released by Anti-Bush forces within, or it's true and the Iranians are waiting for a Democrat to win the white house so they can safely resume their nuke program.

11 Nevergiveup  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:45:52am

Me smellest a thing so foul, that leaks, leaks, and reeks from a odious source!

12 Defector01  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:46:04am

re: #10 Ziggy

Any proof?

13 Kaitian868  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:46:54am

I extremely doubt that they've shelved their nuclear weapons program. The way they've built their nuclear facilities especially underground says otherwise.

14 Defector01  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:48:48am

re: #13 Kaitian868

I don't know if shelving is the correct term as is mothballing - put it into storage, but keep it ready to go back to work with some notice. Like what we do with the carriers that are about to be decommissioned. Don't they always spend like a year or two in mothball just in case we need them?

15 Iron Fist[deleted]  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:48:50am
16 xtraBilly  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:49:32am

I question the timing of this.

17 opnion  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:50:11am

Well alrighty then. Whew I feel better.
The same intell people that did not see the collapse of the Soviet Union or the threat from Al Queda can be taken at their word. Works for me

18 Peacekeeper  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:50:23am

We won! It's over woo-hoo!

19 lawhawk  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:50:35am

The report itself notes that it's full of holes. The report is a bunch of consensus opinions and assumptions about capabilities, and they're going in the polar opposite direction from the NIE on Iraq. I guess it's the natural reaction to getting things wrong - you go wrong in the other direction.

It is, however, somewhat curious that according to the current NIE that Iran stopped its nuclear program in 2003 (what else could possibly have happened in that time frame to impress upon the mad mullahs to cease and shelve their nuclear weapons program), but that it is likely to resume in 2009 (after a certain US president has left office?

More here.

20 Ziggy  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:50:46am

re: #12 Defector01

None what so ever. Sorry I forgot to start with "I think, suspect or wouldn't be surprised if..."

21 nolocon  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:51:00am

Iran Has Shelved Nuke Program . . . and . . .
- OJ is still searching for the True Killers of Ron and Nicole
- Arafat got his AIDS from a blood tranfusion
- Bill did not have sex with that woman, Monica Lewinsky
- Baghdad Bob has been hired by the CNN Fact Check Department

22 grumpy old codger  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:51:07am

The Iranian Dairy board has just announced that all those 3000 centrifuges will now be put to use separting milk and cream. The dairy products will be shupped to paliland to feed the now reformed hamas and fatah members, who will now concentrate on growing fruits and vegetabels for sale to Israel.

Oh, I just woke up. Guess it's either a dream or a Nobel winning piece of fiction.

23 Owl  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:52:01am

WHEW!

RON PAUL NO DOUBT IS BEHIND THIS! FEAR TEH PAUL! TEH PAUL WILL GIT YOU!

ok, seriously - what the hey...

24 JamesTKirk  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:52:05am

re: #21 nolocon

I might be convinced that the last one is true...

25 gagalbert  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:52:08am

I don't believe it for a minute. This is very convenient for Pres. Bush and Sec Rice considering that they have to totally unable to get Iran to move a single inch away from building the bomb.

First, I wish someone would come up with one single reason that Iran would not want to develop a bomb? Sanctions? Please. How about an attack by the US? Won't happen. Pres Bush's mind is in Crawford now and all he is doing is waiting out the clock.

The State Dept just wants to say anything that will allow Israel to be portrayed as an outlaw (like they did in 1981 and Osirak). The CIA?

Y'all should read Ken Timmerman's "Shadow Warriors" You will see how our own supposed gov employees campaign against policy they do not want.

Finally, will all the bad experience with the CIA and State we have with their information, please tell me one reason they are to be believed.

26 Adrenalyn  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:52:25am

let's think this over
WE had the Manhattan Project in the 1940's
with no knowledge base to draw on
(no trained scientists, no how-to manuals
nor ready-made expertice)
and no equipment to process uranium
that was "off the shelf" like nowadays

and we made that bomb pretty fast considering...
now, given the technology and know-how already out there
you think it would really take them ANOTHER two years to make a bomb ?

shit, get real
if they wanted one, they'd already have it
or do have one
like the North Koreans (not to mention the Paki's)
they'd proably been sitting on one since Clinton was getting blowjobs in the Oval Office
it's too late to stop them from making one
making many more, perhaps
but deterrent is the mode we should be in
let them and all Islam know that one nuke goes off anywhere worldwide
and we erase Mecca and EVERY holy site to Islam

27 jcm  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:53:03am

CIA is still in BDS mode.

28 Defector01  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:53:03am

re: #20 Ziggy

re: #12 Defector01

None what so ever. Sorry I forgot to start with "I think, suspect or wouldn't be surprised if..."

No biggie, just wondering if you got a memo that I didn't :-p

29 Ziggy  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:53:38am

re: #15 Iron Fist

re: #10 Ziggy,

Wouldn't the later be proof that preemptive action in Iraq had a deterring effect on Iran? Not that the L³eftists would ever admit it.

Two good points. Either way, I fully expect a nuclear Iran one day soon. The world doesn't have the gonads or desire to do anything, Bush has long abandoned the Bush Doctrine and I don't believe Israel can destroy the entire program by herself.

30 WriterMom  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:54:52am

Well, considering Israel doesn't seem to be taking the threat very seriously why should anyone else?

Israel's President Peres: Pollution Just As Threatening to Israel As Terror.

31 gagalbert  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:54:56am

One last thing. Do you really think that the Saudi's did not request something from Pres Bush and Condi for their supposed participation in the debacle at Annapolis? I think the timing is suspicious.

Ronald Reagan: Trust but Verify.

I want to see the verifications with hard, irrefutable facts.

32 Quiller  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:54:58am

If true, it will only remain shelved till the pressure is off.

33 Owl  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:56:13am

re: #25 gagalbert


I don't think it's that they've been "unable", I think it's that they have been " unwilling."

34 threeacres  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:56:31am

Shelved or out-sourced? Costs of nuclear weapons development spiraling out of control? Syria, Libya and other partners can offer you all the quality at half the cost. Added benefit: Deniability.

35 buzzsawmonkey[deleted]  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:56:34am
36 Ziggy  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:56:57am

re: #28 Defector01

No problem, I wasn't sure where you were coming from. However, I should have made it more clear that it was purely conjecture.

37 Peacekeeper  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:57:10am

OT

Four days after a United Nations committee declared that the use of Taser's X26 stun gun by police amounted to torture, Taser has issued a strong response. In a release posted on its Web site today, the Arizona-based company claimed that the U.N. Committee Against Torture is "out of touch with the reality that confronts law enforcement officers every day worldwide."

[Link: www.popularmechanics.com...]

38 Poitiers-Lepanto  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:57:15am

.

Iran shelved it’s nuclear weapons program

ABC News shelved its editing program centuries ago.

/ITS, not "it's"

39 BeerDrinking_VictoryMonkey  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:57:22am

re: #30 WriterMom

Well, considering Israel doesn't seem to be taking the threat very seriously why should anyone else?

Israel's President Peres: Pollution Just As Threatening to Israel As Terror.


So if Hamas doesn't recycle, then Israel is in really big trouble!

40 Silhouette  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:57:56am
One of the prisoners get a letter from his wife. "Darling, you won't believe it, but I found the most adorable baby on our doorstep. And I've decided to keep it for our very own. You won't believe it, but it has exactly my eyes and nose."

His response, "Why does she keep saying I won't believe it? I believe it... I believe it."

- Stalag 17

41 mean Gene  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:58:22am

But, but, but...within the last two years didn't Ahmadinejad put out that really cute cartoon proving that Iran was going toward building nuclear plants?
That was a funny and cute (for Iran) cartoon.

42 Nevergiveup  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:58:26am

Of course non of this makes any sense at all. If they had shelved their nuclear weapons program, why would they still be surreptitiously producing plutonium? They are getting a nuclear reactor with fuel from the Russians supposedly for power. When 2 + 2 = 6 I'll believe this!

43 jcm  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:58:33am

Which program, the joint Syria, Iran, NorKo program the IAF whacked or the one in the tunnels?

44 debutaunt  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:59:00am

re: #38 Poitiers-Lepanto

.


Iran shelved it’s nuclear weapons program

ABC News shelved its editing program centuries ago.

/ITS, not "it's"

Random apostrophes of torture.

45 Owl  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:59:28am

re: #29 Ziggy

re: #15 Iron Fist


re: #10 Ziggy,

Wouldn't the later be proof that preemptive action in Iraq had a deterring effect on Iran? Not that the L?eftists would ever admit it.


Two good points. Either way, I fully expect a nuclear Iran one day soon. The world doesn't have the gonads or desire to do anything, Bush has long abandoned the Bush Doctrine and I don't believe Israel can destroy the entire program by herself.


I'm with you except for that last thing there...I believe Israel could take on the whole world and win. They've got a little something I like to call Almighty God on their side.

One day it won't be just us religious kooks that know the scoop. LOL

46 lobo91  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:59:37am

This report is nothing more than an attempt at CYA, anyway. The people who wrote it don't even believe it. Note the following phrase:

“We judge with moderate confidence that the earliest possible date Iran would be technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium (HEU) for a weapon is late 2009.”

"Moderate confidence" is one step above "my wife's hairdresser's son's girlfriend heard someone say this."

47 Poitiers-Lepanto  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:59:45am

re: #18 Peacekeeper

We won! It's over woo-hoo!

You work for the State Dept. now, don't you ?

:-)

48 soccerdad  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 10:59:53am

re: #25 gagalbert

I don't believe it for a minute. This is very convenient for Pres. Bush and Sec Rice considering that they have to totally unable to get Iran to move a single inch away from building the bomb.

First, I wish someone would come up with one single reason that Iran would not want to develop a bomb? Sanctions? Please. How about an attack by the US? Won't happen. Pres Bush's mind is in Crawford now and all he is doing is waiting out the clock.

The State Dept just wants to say anything that will allow Israel to be portrayed as an outlaw (like they did in 1981 and Osirak). The CIA?

Y'all should read Ken Timmerman's "Shadow Warriors" You will see how our own supposed gov employees campaign against policy they do not want.

Finally, will all the bad experience with the CIA and State we have with their information, please tell me one reason they are to be believed.

Ding, Ding, Ding! We have a winner.

Well Said Gagalbert...well... said.

49 JammieWearingFool  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:00:13am

A willing suspension of disbelief...

50 Iron Fist[deleted]  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:00:46am
51 jcm  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:00:52am

re: #46 lobo91

52 BeerDrinking_VictoryMonkey  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:01:37am

re: #37 Peacekeeper

OT

Four days after a United Nations committee declared that
the use of Taser's X26 stun gun by police amounted to torture, Taser
has issued a strong response. In a release posted on its Web site
today, the Arizona-based company claimed that the U.N. Committee
Against Torture is "out of touch with the reality that confronts law
enforcement officers every day worldwide."

[Link: www.popularmechanics.com...]

I guess the UN is really gonna go ape-poopy over Taser's new shotgun launched system XREP!
The irony in all this is that classifing Taser systems as "torture" only makes the use of lethal force by police & military forces all the more likely.

53 Kragar (Proud to be Kafir)  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:01:47am

re: #39 BeerDrinking_VictoryMonkey

re: #30 WriterMom


Well, considering Israel doesn't seem to be taking the threat very seriously why should anyone else?

Israel's President Peres: Pollution Just As Threatening to Israel As Terror.


So if Hamas doesn't recycle, then Israel is in really big trouble!

HAHA, infidel pigs, you will burn in the flames of hell as I fail to sort out the garbage! Surrender at once or I will pee in the resevoir!

54 Peacekeeper  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:01:54am

Weather report for NYC 2012
"Partly mushroom cloudy with highs in the low 10,000's"

55 jcm  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:02:01am

re: #46 lobo91

"Moderate confidence" is one step above "my wife's hairdresser's son's girlfriend heard someone say this."

Come on would they lie to you?

re: #51 jcm
THE KEYBOARD DID IT!

56 soccerdad  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:02:26am

re: #26 Adrenalyn

...but deterrent is the mode we should be in
let them and all Islam know that one nuke goes off anywhere worldwide
and we erase Mecca and EVERY holy site to Islam

Project WILDFIRE!

57 jcm  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:03:11am

re: #52 BeerDrinking_VictoryMonkey

re: #37 Peacekeeper

OT

Four days after a United Nations committee declared that
the use of Taser's X26 stun gun by police amounted to torture, Taser
has issued a strong response. In a release posted on its Web site
today, the Arizona-based company claimed that the U.N. Committee
Against Torture is "out of touch with the reality that confronts law
enforcement officers every day worldwide."

[Link: www.popularmechanics.com...]

I guess the UN is really gonna go ape-poopy over Taser's new shotgun launched system XREP!
The irony in all this is that classifing Taser systems as "torture" only makes the use of lethal force by police & military forces all the more likely.

Don't go dis'in XREP, my company makes the control chip. None of the engineers volunteered for functional testing.

58 BeerDrinking_VictoryMonkey  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:03:47am

re: #56 soccerdad

re: #26 Adrenalyn

...but deterrent is the mode we should be in
let them and all Islam know that one nuke goes off anywhere worldwide
and we erase Mecca and EVERY holy site to Islam

Project WILDFIRE!

Are we gonna have to nuke the moon, too?

59 Poitiers-Lepanto  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:03:48am

re: #49 JammieWearingFool

A willing suspension of disbelief...

Yeah ! Sit down and enjoy the movie(possible title: "Condi the Barbarian"):
iran is good, AmeriKKa is bad, islam is a religion of peace and we will have peace in the Middle East within 12 months.

Popcorn, pictures with Santa and joy...

/I feel so much better now !

60 kentuckyjoe  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:03:48am

Never believe a guy wearing a "Members Only" jacket.

61 buzzsawmonkey[deleted]  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:04:34am
62 mad_scientist  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:04:52am
Don’t you feel reassured now?

No.

63 Nevergiveup  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:04:54am

re: #60 kentuckyjoe

Never believe a guy wearing a "Members Only" jacket.

What about a "M.O.T." jacket?

64 Peacekeeper  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:05:12am

re: #52 BeerDrinking_VictoryMonkey

Looks cool and it could save a lot of lives.

65 Poitiers-Lepanto  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:05:35am

re: #54 Peacekeeper

Weather report for NYC 2012
"Partly mushroom cloudy with highs in the low 10,000's"

Showers of glass possible.

/CD of the year: "Glowing in the rain".

66 BeerDrinking_VictoryMonkey  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:06:10am

re: #60 kentuckyjoe

Never believe a guy wearing a "Members Only" jacket.

Someday, they'll be back in style.

67 soccerdad  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:06:37am

re: #58 BeerDrinking_VictoryMonkey

Are we gonna have to nuke the moon, too?

What does that mean? Not sure how to take...

68 Peacekeeper  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:06:53am

re: #47 Poitiers-Lepanto

Helluva thing isn't it? Our own government agencies spend more time trying to bring down the Bush Administration than our enemies.

69 Poitiers-Lepanto  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:06:56am

Can we post a

"NUKE US ALL, NOW !"

?

70 Owl  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:07:17am

re: #66 BeerDrinking_VictoryMonkey

re: #60 kentuckyjoe


Never believe a guy wearing a "Members Only" jacket.

Someday, they'll be back in style.

/owl hides gray jacket under office chair

71 Maine's Michael  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:07:23am

I put an opened jar of honey on the shelf yesterday.

I took it off the shelf and used it this morning.

NYTIMES gives this front page treatment (Iran, not my honey).

I think they think it means a strike on Iran is even less justified now.

Very nice little way for Bush to slink out his presidency and responsibilities, and be able to blame the intelligence service if/WHEN Iran tests a weapon.

72 Ziggy  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:07:35am

re: #45 Owl

re: #29 Ziggy


re: #15 Iron Fist

re: #10 Ziggy,
Wouldn't the later be proof that preemptive action in Iraq had a deterring effect on Iran? Not that the L?eftists would ever admit it.

Two good points. Either way, I fully expect a nuclear Iran one day soon. The world doesn't have the gonads or desire to do anything, Bush has long abandoned the Bush Doctrine and I don't believe Israel can destroy the entire program by herself.

I'm with you except for that last thing there...I believe Israel could take on the whole world and win. They've got a little something I like to call Almighty God on their side.

One day it won't be just us religious kooks that know the scoop. LOL

Let's hope you're right. Sometimes frequently (in the last few years anyway) it seems Israel is the architect of her own destruction.

73 jcm  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:07:36am

re: #61 buzzsawmonkey

re: #50 Iron Fist

Maybe this is a stealth play by the Bush Administration. Now that Bush is saying that Iran doesn't have a nuke program, the Democrats will call on him to bomb it. They just can't resist doing the opposite of whatever the Bush Administration wants.

Interesting take. Before Annapolis, I might have entertained the notion. At this point, however, I am more inclined to believe that it is yet another instance in which the leftist-infested intelligence services are conniving with the enemy to weaken the nation they are paid to serve.

I see more CIA politics, there are a bunch of anti-Bushies in the agency. They see leaking an analysis that makes justify operations against Iran much harder as a good thing. Most likely it is a report among many that looks at all the possibilities of what is going on.

74 Silhouette  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:08:10am

re: #58 BeerDrinking_VictoryMonkey

Are we gonna have to nuke the moon, too?

If only there were a T-shirt with that on it.

75 Poitiers-Lepanto  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:08:31am

re: #68 Peacekeeper

re: #47 Poitiers-Lepanto

Helluva thing isn't it? Our own government agencies spend more time trying to bring down the Bush Administration than our enemies.

They are really really (really) nuanced and their parties are absolutely fabulous ! Don't question their RIGHTEOUSNESS !

76 Killgore Trout  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:08:56am

Koskidz...
The Neo-Cons Ain't Gonna' Like This One Bit

US Intelligence Agencies are knee capping the Iranian Wet Dreams of the War Mongering Chicken Hawks!
...
Does this hearald a revolt in DC by the people who got nailed by the Neo-Cons on Iraq? Are they getting this out to us so the Hard Sell won't work this time? Are there still Patriots in Government.

Yes. Yes. And, Yes!

77 kentuckyjoe  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:09:04am

Owl, that's right! I have one too, hanging right beside my Columbia jacket!

Peacekeeper, no offense at my earlier comment in earlier thread.

78 jcm  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:09:20am

re: #74 Silhouette

re: #58 BeerDrinking_VictoryMonkey

Are we gonna have to nuke the moon, too?

If only there were a T-shirt with that on it.



Nuke the moon.

79 Muadib  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:09:41am

re: #54 Peacekeeper

Weather report for NYC 2012
"Partly mushroom cloudy with highs in the low 10,000's"

Weather like that will definitely melt steel.

80 WriterMom  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:10:02am

Welcome to LGF!

I'm here! Finally in!

LOLOLOL.

81 toomanysnax  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:10:37am

Lessee. Three thousand centifuges spinning away are suddenly silenced. Only the screwball press, particularly NPR, could buy that BS.

82 WriterMom  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:10:57am

re: #44 debutaunt

Random apostrophes of torture.

Rotating title nomination.

83 Iron Fist[deleted]  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:11:06am
84 Eowyn2  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:11:20am

re: #76 Killgore Trout

Koskidz...
The Neo-Cons Ain't Gonna' Like This One Bit


US Intelligence Agencies are knee capping the Iranian Wet Dreams of the War Mongering Chicken Hawks!
...
Does this hearald a revolt in DC by the people who got nailed by the Neo-Cons on Iraq? Are they getting this out to us so the Hard Sell won't work this time? Are there still Patriots in Government.

Yes. Yes. And, Yes!

Wash your hands after you've been in the toilet.

85 Peacekeeper  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:11:45am

re: #77 kentuckyjoe
(Shakes fist)

Hey if I wanted to hear somebody agree with everything I said, I'd talk to my wife...

86 toomanysnax  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:11:59am

re: #80 WriterMom

Welcome to LGF!

I'm here! Finally in!

LOLOLOL.

Welcome!

87 Poitiers-Lepanto  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:12:01am

re: #80 WriterMom

Welcome to LGF!

I'm here! Finally in!

LOLOLOL.

Are you trying to look like a young hatchling ?
Or like you don't HAVE nukes ?

88 jcm  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:12:21am

re: #81 toomanysnax

Lessee. Three thousand centifuges spinning away are suddenly silenced. Only the screwball press, particularly NPR, could buy that BS.

The CIA called up Dinnerjacket, he said "no, we've got no nuclear plans."
See ultimately reliable, straight from the horses mouth.

89 WriterMom  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:13:06am
H. We assess with high confidence that Iran has the scientific, technical and industrial capacity eventually to produce nuclear weapons if it decides to do so.

Nuff said.

90 toomanysnax  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:13:35am

re: #88 jcm

re: #81 toomanysnax


Lessee. Three thousand centifuges spinning away are suddenly silenced. Only the screwball press, particularly NPR, could buy that BS.

The CIA called up Dinnerjacket, he said "no, we've got no nuclear plans."
See ultimately reliable, straight from the horses mouth.

Which end of the horse?

91 Peacekeeper  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:13:36am

"...straight from the horses mouth."


other end

92 Poitiers-Lepanto  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:13:48am

re: #76 Killgore Trout

the KOmmieSKIDS use the word

"patriot" ?

/yeah, they mean "USSR hero"...

93 WriterMom  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:14:01am

re: #87 Poitiers-Lepanto

My nukes are real, and fabulous. I'm not over the hill yet!

94 jcm  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:14:25am

re: #89 WriterMom

H. We assess with high confidence that Iran has the scientific, technical and industrial capacity eventually to produce nuclear weapons if it decides to do so.

Nuff said.

Add to that the stated desire.
The will.

BOMBS AWAY!

95 Killgore Trout  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:15:18am

re: #83 Iron Fist

They're giddy over this. 5-6 diaries about all of them are touting a peaceful Iran and a warmongering America.

96 jcm  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:15:20am

re: #91 Peacekeeper

"...straight from the horses mouth."


other end

I stand corrected.

97 NJDhockeyfan  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:15:30am

OT:

It's official...

Savage Sues Muslim Group

98 Poitiers-Lepanto  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:15:38am

re: #93 WriterMom

re: #87 Poitiers-Lepanto

My nukes are real, and fabulous. I'm not over the hill yet!

LOL !
{OINK}

/my Bro is getting Mezuzas in Israel for the Cousin, is it a good gift for BarMitzva ?

99 Eowyn2  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:15:46am

re: #57 jcm

re: #52 BeerDrinking_VictoryMonkey


re: #37 Peacekeeper

OT

Four days after a United Nations committee declared that
the use of Taser's X26 stun gun by police amounted to torture, Taser
has issued a strong response. In a release posted on its Web site
today, the Arizona-based company claimed that the U.N. Committee
Against Torture is "out of touch with the reality that confronts law
enforcement officers every day worldwide."

[Link: www.popularmechanics.com...]


I guess the UN is really gonna go ape-poopy over Taser's new shotgun launched system XREP!
The irony in all this is that classifing Taser systems as "torture" only makes the use of lethal force by police & military forces all the more likely.

Don't go dis'in XREP, my company makes the control chip. None of the engineers volunteered for functional testing.

none of the engineers have broken the law.
which would you rather hear
"halt or I'll taze you"
"Halt or I'll put a bullet through you"

100 Quiller  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:15:49am

After a second read, this sounds more like an escape clause for not taking military action. I suspect the solution will be provided by Israel. The only obstacle being her current leaders.

101 jcm  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:15:52am

re: #91 Peacekeeper

"...straight from the horses mouth."


other end

And the CIA eats every bit.

102 Peacekeeper  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:16:11am

re: #96 jcm

re: #91 Peacekeeper


"...straight from the horses mouth."


other end


I stand corrected.

The evidence just keeps piling up...

103 Killgore Trout  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:16:20am

re: #92 Poitiers-Lepanto

the KOmmieSKIDS use the word

"patriot" ?


Note they only use the word to describe those who oppose the evil plans of Dubbya.

104 WriterMom  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:16:27am
105 Pro-Bush Canuck  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:16:47am

re: #76 Killgore Trout

Kilgore:

Spengler opines that atheism and Islam are extremely close to each other in the cognitive model they embrace, and both are far removed from Judeo-Christianity. He also goes on to essentially blame Western atheism for the entire Islamist encroachment into the West. He furthermore elucidates the reasons why Muslim apostates tend to embrace atheism, while this is not true of most other religions (more people convert from one religion to another, than to atheism).

This is something I have long known deep down. It takes a Spengler to articulate it, however we should all be aware that atheism is a deeply anti-American creed which should be at best tolerated, and never, ever advanced as a useful model on which to base a society. i'm sorry if this offends, but truth is sometimes painful.

Atheism and Islam - peas in a pod.

Hirsi Ali, atheism and Islam

106 Eowyn2  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:16:56am

re: #87 Poitiers-Lepanto

re: #80 WriterMom


Welcome to LGF!

I'm here! Finally in!

LOLOLOL.


Are you trying to look like a young hatchling ?
Or like you don't HAVE nukes ?


Its a female age thing, I understand.

107 WriterMom  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:17:25am

re: #98 Poitiers-Lepanto

Lovely! So happy about that still.

{OINK}

108 Peacekeeper  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:17:29am

re: #99 Eowyn2

which would you rather hear
"halt or I'll taze you"
"Halt or I'll put a bullet through you"
Actually I was hoping for "By me a drink big fella?"

109 lawhawk  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:17:43am

re: #98 Poitiers-Lepanto

That is a very nice gift to give. Lots of meaning there.

110 WriterMom  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:18:54am

re: #99 Eowyn2

Three Canadians have died in the past month or so after being tased. I don't know too much about them, but it certainly seems like they are very dangerous weapons. I know they are supposed to be, but I wonder if there are other ways of sedating people...

111 jcm  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:19:12am

re: #99 Eowyn2

Taser's and XREP are a good thing.

The down side and we see it in Seattle. We the cops make the decision lethal force is necessary. The Police Command structure, City Clowncil, and media all ask "way didn't they just use a taser."

112 Peacekeeper  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:19:12am

re: #93 WriterMom

re: #87 Poitiers-Lepanto

My nukes are real, and fabulous. I'm not over the hill yet!

Hubba-hubba.

113 Abu Lahab  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:19:23am
...would be technically capable of producing enough enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon within two years. Don’t you feel reassured now?


Exactly; I think it shouldn't make much difference if the program was shelved or not; their intentions will never be shelved or even compromised.

114 WriterMom  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:19:43am

Hubba hubcaps to you!

115 wetfun  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:19:52am

So what was that thing the Israelies took out in Syria? hmmm?

116 WriterMom  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:19:58am

Whoops...that was for PK.

117 Peacekeeper  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:21:19am

re: #116 WriterMom

We've GOT to stop meeting like this...

118 Killgore Trout  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:21:25am

re: #105 Pro-Bush Canuck

Spengler sounds like a real idiot.

119 Eowyn2  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:21:36am

re: #97 NJDhockeyfan

OT:

It's official...

Savage Sues Muslim Group

I may think that the mikester is misogynistic at times but I gotta give the guy credit for sticking to his guns. We already knew he had brass ones after the last contretemps about the poor college students possible starvation protest.

120 Owl  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:22:02am

re: #72 Ziggy
Agreed. But if I have hope for anything in this world it is justice and peace for Israel.

121 jcm  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:22:06am

re: #115 wetfun

So what was that thing the Israelies took out in Syria? hmmm?

What thing? There is NOTHING!

122 yochanan  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:22:11am

holy disinformation bat man

123 Eowyn2  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:22:15am

re: #108 Peacekeeper

re: #99 Eowyn2

which would you rather hear
"halt or I'll taze you"
"Halt or I'll put a bullet through you"
Actually I was hoping for "By me a drink big fella?"

I prefer "buy you a drink little lady"

124 Maine's Michael  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:22:36am

re: #100 Quiller

Exactly right.

And guess what?

She will get blamed by EVERYONE (US Intelligence services and the State Dept too) for acting when all analysis pointed to no imminent threat.

Its a set-up.

Israel to be the fall guy, once again.

15 years from now, after the American-Iranian War of 2021 (the '12th Imam War') future VP Francisco Bush will autograph satellite photo of the Natanz facility bombed by Israel next year with a 'Thanks for making our job easier!' message.

125 Poitiers-Lepanto  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:22:39am

re: #107 WriterMom

re: #98 Poitiers-Lepanto

Lovely! So happy about that still.

{OINK}

Me too. The only way my Family had to take the whole story as "PERSONAL" UNTIL now WAS by... taking nazi and fascist bullets, now we can take it personal in a good way too !
LOL !

re: #109 lawhawk

re: #98 Poitiers-Lepanto

That is a very nice gift to give. Lots of meaning there.

Thank you, I hope so.

And the Cousin, being from Jewish MOTHER, will still have my same family name...fascinating.

126 Pro-Bush Canuck  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:22:48am

re: #105 Pro-Bush Canuck

Money quote:

Bolshevik brawlers in Germany in the 1930s often crossed the line from Red to Brown. And Muslims find it easier to be atheists than to be Christians or Jews.

127 Iron Fist[deleted]  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:23:13am
128 Ward Cleaver  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:23:26am

Back to sleep, America.

/abc news

129 Eowyn2  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:23:57am

re: #120 Owl

re: #72 Ziggy
Agreed. But if I have hope for anything in this world it is justice and peace for Israel.

You just lost the Miss Universe crown. The correct answer is "I want peace in the Middle East and throughout the world"

By now we should all recognize that phrase means "destroy Israel before its too late for my world tour"

130 Pro-Bush Canuck  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:24:08am

re: #118 Killgore Trout

Well he would sound like an idiot to you. The mystery to me is how you can read someone like Gagdad Bob, who spends about half his time revealing the stupidity and blindness of atheism...

131 Killgore Trout  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:24:14am

re: #105 Pro-Bush Canuck

Why do Muslim apostates gravitate towards atheism? That is not true of other religions.


That's a completely false premise. Where did all those atheists and agnostics in Europe come from? They used to be Christians.

132 afdad  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:24:15am

re: #8 Fast Eddie

It doesn't matter what happens in the future. Regardless of events, somebody will be able to dig out an old NIE that predicted exactly whatever it was that just happened.

Never underestimate the ability of bureaucrats to cover their butts.

If it is later found that said bureaucrats either ignored, or falsified this estimate, said bureaucrats should be strung up from the nearest lamppost over a large pile of hot coals that will hopefully take days to melt their hides off.

Ignoring, or falsifying reports of this nature may cost innocent lives. If said bureaucrats cannot, or will not perform the job they receive a fair compensation for, they should quit, and go into Journalism as there, they will find like minded compatriots.

133 Is it me?  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:25:30am

Sorry guys, but I don't believe it.
If Iran shelved their Nuclear programme in 2003 then they were probably waiting to see what happened in Iraq (and got a front seat to watch the power of the coalition forces) and to see if America would keep going and flatten Iran while they were at it. They probably hid it away to keep it safe.
Dinnerjacket and the mad mullahs are hell bent on armaggedon. They turned down the chance at having a proper civilian nuclear reactor years ago so their intentions were clear. They're only waiting until the rest of the parts come mail order (it seems to be a bit of a problem keeping suppliers LOL), fool the UN (not difficult) and keep throwing people off balance by alternating threats with a plea for world peace (Islam being the only hope apparently ) with the unfailing assertion that it's all Americas fault (that would be everything bad in the history of mankind then). They don't mind dying - they just want the rest of the world to die with them. A kind of Mecca or bust plan.
US intelligence need to be all over this like a rash. Complacency kills.

134 Peacekeeper  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:25:50am

Opine thread

135 Pro-Bush Canuck  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:25:50am

re: #118 Killgore Trout

And for the record, Spengler is among the most respected and scholarly anti-jihad writers on the planet. He knows more about Islam than most imams, and more about western culture than most Harvard dons. He knows whereof he speaks. Again, sorry if that offends.

136 Poitiers-Lepanto  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:25:57am

re: #118 Killgore Trout

re: #105 Pro-Bush Canuck

Spengler sounds like a real idiot.

May I interfere in the discussion and suggest that instead of "atheism" we should be speaking of "nihilism" ?

Just a suggestion that could avoid personal problems in the interesting debate...

137 yochanan  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:26:20am

re: #98 Poitiers-Lepanto


only if you want the boy to hate you
mezuzahs are great as a house warming gift, not for a 13 year old boy for a 13 year old boy would love tickets to a professional basketball team or hockey

138 Just_A_Grunt  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:26:37am

It sounds like a lot of CYA. Bush knows he can't take action and this gives him the cover. If Iran managed to unlease a nuke before he left office he can always point back to this NIE. Sorry Israel and any Palestinians caught downwind.
I am glad they did a reevaluation but I also have to wonder where the information for the new assesment came from. I hope it was more then UN inspectors and pinky swears from the mullahs in Iran.

139 Eowyn2  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:27:06am

re: #111 jcm

re: #99 Eowyn2

Taser's and XREP are a good thing.

The down side and we see it in Seattle. We the cops make the decision lethal force is necessary. The Police Command structure, City Clowncil, and media all ask "way didn't they just use a taser."

they should be asking
"would you take a taser to a gun fight"

140 Eowyn2  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:27:33am

re: #131 Killgore Trout

re: #105 Pro-Bush Canuck


Why do Muslim apostates gravitate towards atheism? That is not true of other religions.

That's a completely false premise. Where did all those atheists and agnostics in Europe come from? They used to be Christians.

Druids

141 Kosh's Shadow  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:27:44am

I think the people selling bridges would find a great market in Washington.
"Yes, Iran stopped their nuclear bomb program. Oh sure, I've heard of the Brooklyn bridge. I didn't know it was that cheap. Let me get out my checkbook..."

142 Killgore Trout  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:27:48am

re: #130 Pro-Bush Canuck


We hear of Muslim converts to Christianity all the time. They often show up in the news for being persecuted. Remember the Lizard named Hazan? he converted from Islam to Christianity.

143 Pro-Bush Canuck  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:27:53am

re: #131 Killgore Trout

Nope. The vast majority today were essentially born into a godless culture.

Obviously many people do lose their Judeo-Christian faith and become atheists (and many other bad things). His point is that Muslims seem to overwhelmingly convert to atheism because it is the closest cognitive analog to Islam.

144 Eowyn2  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:28:19am

re: #137 yochanan

re: #98 Poitiers-Lepanto


only if you want the boy to hate you
mezuzahs are great as a house warming gift, not for a 13 year old boy for a 13 year old boy would love tickets to a professional basketball team or hockey

what about a mezuzah money tree?

145 Poitiers-Lepanto  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:28:27am

re: #137 yochanan

re: #98 Poitiers-Lepanto


only if you want the boy to hate you
mezuzahs are great as a house warming gift, not for a 13 year old boy for a 13 year old boy would love tickets to a professional basketball team or hockey

LOL !
I appreciate your intention...but we live several thousands miles away and this is a multi-continental operation...we have logistical problems...

146 Pro-Bush Canuck  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:29:03am

re: #142 Killgore Trout

Anyhow you can take it up with Spengler.

His evidence is strong, and his points well-taken.

Over ninety percent of Americans believe in God.

Of those who don't, over ninety percent are leftists.

Do the math.

147 MJ  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:29:36am

This is the Bush/Baker administration telling Israel that it will condemn an eventual Israeli attack against Iranian nuclear facilities in the UN. Israel will be on it's own thanks to the Baker Administration.

Bush sold out Israel.

148 Killgore Trout  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:29:46am

re: #135 Pro-Bush Canuck

And for the record, Spengler is among the most respected and scholarly anti-jihad writers on the planet. He knows more about Islam than most imams, and more about western culture than most Harvard dons. He knows whereof he speaks


If he's such a genius why does he only write under alias for for obscure Asian website. He sounds like a quack to me.

149 Killgore Trout  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:30:42am

re: #143 Pro-Bush Canuck

His point is that Muslims seem to overwhelmingly convert to atheism because it is the closest cognitive analog to Islam.


I don't see any evidence of that nor does he provide any.

150 Killgore Trout  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:31:57am

re: #136 Poitiers-Lepanto

Just a suggestion that could avoid personal problems in the interesting debate...


There's no need to be overly polite. It's all part of open debate.

151 WriterMom  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:33:24am

re: #137 yochanan

yoch, on some level I agree with you, but I got a few gifts such as mezuzot and candle sticks for my Bat Mitzvah, and I did appreciate it then, but I treasure them today...some things you just tuck away for adulthood...

152 WriterMom  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:35:03am

re: #150 Killgore Trout

OK. Fuck off.

JUST KIDDING!

:)

153 WriterMom  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:35:21am

Sorry that was obnoxious.

154 RetiredUSAF  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:35:40am

I have a lot of problems believing anything coming out of the CIA for the last couple of years. I think they lost me when the real facts came out about the Plame game. Don’t even get me started about their failure to see the collapse of the Soviet Union, Invasion of Kuwait by Iraq, and 9/11. Jimmy Carter did a hell of a job gutting this agency and the Clinton’s took care of what was left. Too bad Bush failed to clean the Clinton plants in the CIA, FBI, DOJ, and DOD if we clear them out we could actually win this global war against Islamic fascism.

155 mr_bitterness  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:36:15am

They'll take it on faith if Iran pretends not to want nukes, but enter full denial mode when they express unmitigated desire to annihilate . It's like convincing yourself there's no such thing as an automobile, and then strolling down your favorite part of the Eisenhower Sidewalk System.

156 Killgore Trout  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:37:46am

re: #152 WriterMom

That's the spirit!

157 Maine's Michael  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:38:06am

re: #147 MJ

Yep. See 124.

Great minds, or at least paranoid ones, think alike.

158 Ben Hur  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:38:17am

Because, suddenly, they have better intel than Israel...

159 Killgore Trout  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:38:22am

re: #153 WriterMom

Nah, made me laugh.

160 Poitiers-Lepanto  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:38:33am

re: #150 Killgore Trout

re: #136 Poitiers-Lepanto

Just a suggestion that could avoid personal problems in the interesting debate...


There's no need to be overly polite. It's all part of open debate.

I was trying to go beyond the labels.
Some atheists have NOT the dark spiritual life of a true believer in the NOTHING, so the discussion about "atheism" misses the mark because it's precisely that spiritual darkness that islam spreads and teaches. (The "god" of Fate and of NO FREE WILL is a very very strange "god" and is way more similar to the Eimarmene, the Blind Fate, of the absolute nihilists than to any other belief or ethic).

161 Poitiers-Lepanto  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:44:18am

It looks like I nuked the thread.

/I didn't mean to do that ! I was cleaning the Merriam-Webster when IT shot too many words !

162 WriterMom  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:47:53am

I'm still here!

163 Killgore Trout  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:48:13am

re: #160 Poitiers-Lepanto

There are different levels of disbelief but I'm not picky about labels. Technically speaking I'm an existentialist or agnostic but I accept the term atheist. I get the feeling that this Spangler tool is a Christian supremacist and all those who don't worship his god would be considered heathens or atheists so the broader term works fine.

164 coquimbojoe  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:50:16am

Really. Why do I have a hard time believing this?

Color me skeptical...

165 Maine's Michael  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:50:37am

re: #154 RetiredUSAF

Good points.

Bush: 'Failure is an option!'

166 DamnCat  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:53:34am

I'd put greater faith in what the Israeli intel says. They have better resources there and a much bigger stake knowing the truth.

167 7000 romaine  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:58:41am

jeez--they suspended their enrichment program in 2003 {pre ahmadinajad] at the request of the EU 3 while they were negotiating to see what goodies were offered--but the mullahs soon realized that a bomb is their only insurance against an iraq type invasion/intervention and started it up again soon thereafter[especially when the conservatives won the election and tossed the reformers out]--how's that dialogue thing gong now jack snow--its almost as if he and el baradi were on the mullah payroll--even ali larajani is out on his ass now--the hojatieh faction is in charge now and they need the world to have major turmoil for the hidden iman to show up--and believe me these guys expect and want him to leave the well ASAP--they're even building a highway from the well to tehran for a swift and glorious trip--THEY ARE RELIGIOUS FANATICS--even putin left the last meeting with them shaking his head about their religious nutiness--yo yo--that bomb be a comin'

168 Maine's Michael  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:58:55am

Like Annapolis, this can also be seen as being straight out of Baker's Iraq Study Group recommendations.

'Tone down the rhetoric against Iran.'

169 SnakeSpit  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 12:01:24pm

Methinks I detect the pungent odor of BULLSHIT!

170 Kenneth  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 12:04:14pm

I haven't scanned all the posts by our illustrious lizards, but it seems to me this is a rather obvious counter-intel operation...

I have 3 theories on who did it & why:

Plan A: Dem's in the CIA leaked this report to stymie Bush.
Plan B: Hawks leaked it to make it harder for a diplomatic solution, thereby forcing Bush to use the military option.
Plan C: Bush leaked it to give himself an out and kick the Iran problem to the next (probably Democrat) administration.

171 debutaunt  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 12:05:05pm

re: #104 WriterMom

Nuke me to the mooon...

Thanks - I loved it!

172 Kenneth  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 12:12:16pm

re: #163 Killgore Trout

In the summer of 2006, Spengler wrote that Bush had secretly arranged a deal with Putin in which the Russians would send their army to Iraq, so the Russians would clear out Fallujah. He explained this was because the US "wasn't good at urban warfare" while the Russians were such obvious geniuses at the art, (eg. Chechnya.) Russia was supposed to get some favours from the US in return (a share of IRaqi oil?)

Well, we all know how that all turned out. The US liberated Fallujah from the Islamic terrorist, and re-wrote the book on urban warfare, while Russia is still wallowing in Chechnya. "Spengler" is a pompous fool, a liar and an ass. He gets zero respect from this reader.

173 My 2 cents  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 12:13:07pm

After New York, London, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Tel Aviv, or Haifa are vaporized by an Iranian nuclear bomb floated into position under the cover of commercial shipping, will the CIA revise its assessment? You know, quite frankly, I doubt they would fire even a single analyst or manager even then!

174 WriterMom  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 12:13:11pm

re: #167 7000 romaine

YOU!

Hey stranger!

175 Steffan  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 12:14:42pm

"Moderate confidence" = Scientific Wild-Ass Guess.

In other words, they think maybe it might be the way they think it is, but they don't know for sure and have no way to determine the true answer short of sacrificing a goat and examining its entrails.

Of course, the MSM pounces on it as a certainty, because it agrees with their BDS. Morons.

176 Killgore Trout  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 12:16:22pm

re: #172 Kenneth


"Spengler" is a pompous fool, a liar and an ass.


That confirms my suspicion. Thanks.

177 debutaunt  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 12:16:34pm

re: #152 WriterMom

re: #150 Killgore Trout

OK. Fuck off.

JUST KIDDING!

:)

Just slightly below overly polite.

178 FriarsTale  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 12:23:10pm

I predict a successful Iranian nuke weapon test within 6 months

179 7000 romaine  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 12:23:59pm

yeah writer mommy i lurk every now and then--don't worry i sporadically intensely communicate with ZB behind the scenes-- i guess theres still hope for me :-]

180 FriarsTale  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 12:25:57pm

re: #171 debutaunt

re: #104 WriterMom


Nuke me to the mooon...

Thanks - I loved it!

I think we should
Colonize the Moon
[Link: cruxy.com...]

181 MadJadBad  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 12:29:23pm

Did Valerie Plame work in a group that made these kind of assements?

182 Ziggy  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 12:30:07pm

re: #120 Owl

re: #72 Ziggy
Agreed. But if I have hope for anything in this world it is justice and peace for Israel.

I hope you're right.

183 WriterMom  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 12:32:00pm

re: #179 7000 romaine

Spill it.

184 WriterMom  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 12:34:06pm

re: #179 7000 romaine

AND I note that you are 'blue'.

Wassup, bro? Getting all sentimental and communicative?

185 7000 romaine  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 12:44:09pm

writermommy--going blue was a mistake--zb will give you all the details--i'm too erratic

186 My 2 Cents  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 12:57:46pm

Debka suggests that this is America's way of telling israel to go it alone.

187 Maine's Michael  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 12:58:21pm

re: #170 Kenneth

You missed the reasoning (if you can call it that) in post 124.

188 WriterMom  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 1:00:40pm

re: #185 7000 romaine

I can never catch her :(

I'll try to get the scoop, but she's so busy nowadays.

I'm quite happy about this development for what it's worth.

{CYBERYENTA}

189 Maine's Michael  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 1:02:23pm

re: #186 My 2 Cents

On the same Debka front page is a description of a fresh Saudi kick in the teeth to Bush.

Well deserved, I might add.

Foreign policy is just crumbling.

Pathetic.

We need a real man in charge, even if its Hillary.


/ok maybe not Hillary, yet . . .

190 WriterMom  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 1:02:57pm

re: #189 Maine's Michael

Rudy/Bolton.

191 Maine's Michael  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 1:03:13pm

re: #188 WriterMom

Any juicy details?

192 Dotcoman  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 1:03:41pm

CIA is just miffed at getting left out of the loop on the Israeli bombing of that Syria bomb assembly plant. Nice shooting boys!

As are the treason Dept, I mean State Dept. and the morons over at the UN. Now they are all worried that Israel and the US will gang up on their pals the Iranians and do more of the same.

The CIA didn't have anything on the Syrian plant, and neither did the State Dept, the UN or the IAEA, till something blew up that is.


These guys all pulled the same crap on the US with North Korea and Saddam's WMD programs over and over again.

I say we bomb the M'F-ers now, oh and Iran too.

193 WriterMom  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 1:06:37pm

re: #191 Maine's Michael

They're holding out on me, achi.

194 steveegg  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 1:11:44pm

Extremely curious. If this NIE can be believed, and we can also believe the rest of the nuclear news out of Iran, the Iranians seem to have transitioned from a full-out Manhattan Project to a "turn-key" program, with all of the ingredients created under the cover of semi-openness and ready to be assembled and used at the whim of the least-stable Mullah.

I am also struck by certain similarities between this and the assessments of North Korea's nuclear program post-1994. Say, how did irrational exhuberance over the "success" of diplomatic measures with a tinhorn dictator work out there?

195 Yankee Division Son  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 1:13:02pm

So they supposedly halted the program in 2003? Hmm.. I wonder what could have happened in 2003 to make them do that?

Just a thought.. I'm not sure I buy this report tho, given the proclimations we've heard from Iran..

196 looking closely  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 1:16:26pm

If they were wrong then (Intelligence community about WMD in Iraq), why are they right now?

It would be trivially easy for Iran to show the world exactly what is going on, wouldn't it?

197 tfc3rid  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 1:17:06pm

Of course, this means any Iranian invasion is off the table...

Great...

198 looking closely  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 1:19:24pm

re: #197 tfc3rid

Of course, this means any Iranian invasion is off the table...

Great...


No it doesn't.
It just makes the military option politically more difficult.
If a recently released intel document can show that Iran stopped its nuke program in '03, another one can show it started again in '07.

199 Kenneth  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 1:20:47pm

re: #187 Maine's Michael

Thanks for the tip. Your (cynical) cup runneth over. I'm not sure I agree, but then, I'm not sure I disagree either.

My hunch is this was a deliberate leak by Dems in the CIA to stop Bush from doing anything. The motivation is pure partisan power politics. I don't think they really care if Israel does the job for them or not. That's not their focus.

200 Maine's Michael  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 1:25:11pm
201 Kenneth  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 1:25:35pm

Exactly how is the Iranian nuclear weapons development to be distinguished from nuclear energy program? The nuclear reactors will produce plutonium which will be used in bombs. The enrichment program (remember all those centrifuges?) has been rolling on. It's all part of the same nuclear program.

If the Iranian's "shelved" their nuclear program in 2003, what the hell were they doing in Syria in September?

202 aboo-Hoo-Hoo  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 1:27:37pm

I guess this nuclear weapons program is the same one they've denied ever being in existence for the past 20+ years?

Great, our (lack of) Intelligence wonks come-out with a report that's more hopes, prayers, the throwing-and-reading of chicken-lips then anything that anyone can believe - that'll sure inspire a lot of confidence worldwide.

Jayzuz...I've got more confidence in Putin along with the Mullah's in achieving their goals then what I'm seeing coming out of our (lack of) Intelligence community, the DHS or State.

That sure as hell ain't good.

203 A.W.  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 1:29:20pm

personally i don't know if i believe it. i have seen too much of a clandestine war against the bush admin in the intel community that it is hard to credit them suddenly deciding they stopped seeking nukes.

Seriously, if they didn't want nukes, why are they going through all this hell with sanctions et al?

Second, if they really did stop in 2003, well, then what could have possibly convinced them to stand down? Hmm, that is a real puzzler. I can't think of any neighboring country getting its ass kicked that might have influenced them. Nope, nothing is coming to mind.

If Iran is truly peaceful now, or at least not getting nukes, then what do you credit? fear of a Kerry presidency? or the bush doctrine scoring another one?

Still, I thought on 9-11, that we should kick the Taliban's asses first, then saddam's, then Iran's. Iran has been begging for a beating since the Carter administration and it was a serious mistake we didn't beat them down sooner. I would go as far as to say that if Carter showed a little more backbone in 1979, that 9-11 might not have happened. There are two cancerous sores from which most islamofascist terror comes from: iran and Saudi. And, yeah, eventually we will have to recon with them too.

Some people want to moveon.org from what we learned on 9-11. And some of us remember.

204 Kenneth  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 1:35:15pm

re: #200 Maine's Michael

A secret US-Iranian peace deal? And evidence of this deal is... where? Oh right, there is no evidence, because then it wouldn't be secret, so the absence of evidence is proof it's true?

I'm sorry, but that's about as nutty as squirrel poop.

205 Maine's Michael  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 1:38:53pm

re: #204 Kenneth

Are you saying there can be no quid pro quos between the USA and Iran?

The writer's english is not great, but I think that is what he means.

The circumstantial evidence is certainly there.

206 TMF  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 1:42:34pm

Can anyone point out anything these "NIEs" have accomplished and/or predicted with accuracy in the last 10 years?

A bunch of CYA and agenda driven horse shit.

We should fire everyone of these buffoons

207 Kenneth  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 1:42:59pm

re: #205 Maine's Michael

You call it "circumstantial evidence" I call it speculation and paranoia. I tend to the argument Bush is just playing for "legacy" and has been seduced by the realist camp in the State Dept. US politics is not run by a single powerful figure: it's fought out among different groups. Bush's hand is weak and his chips are low. He has to play along or get squished.

208 Kenneth  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 1:44:40pm

#205 Maine's Michael

...and if Bush cut a deal with the Iranians, you know the Dem's moles would leak that!

209 Maine's Michael  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 1:53:05pm

Iran could be laying low in Iraq so as not to give the US a pretext to launch an action. It does not have to be a quid pro quo, I suppose.

And there are apparently three carrier groups in place in/around the gulf at this time.

Who knows.

A contrivance by democrats is more likely that an understanding between the US and Iran.

My favorite theory is laid out in 124.

The sampsonblinded screed dovetailed nicely.

It is probably unlikely Bush could get away with an 'understanding' with Iran without the dems blowing it into the public domain, as you say.

210 Maine's Michael  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 1:53:44pm

I don't know what is going on, but it smells bad.

211 SnakeSpit  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 2:04:50pm

Let's all be careful, lest we begin to sound like a bunch of KOS conspiracy nuts. This needs to play out a little further.

212 Optimizer  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 2:16:23pm

re: #118 Killgore Trout

Spengler a "real idiot"? I don't think that's the term I would use for somebody who would try to demonize a group of people in opposition to his own ideology, by trying to associate them with Islam. His motives are transparent, and only someone who was eager to climb on the hate wagon would pay any attention to an argument as absurd from head-to-toe as Spangler presents.

"...atheism and Islam are extremely close to each other in the cognitive model..."? Yeah, sure ... people who reject religion have TONS in common with religious fanatics. That's just brilliant!

213 My 2 Cents  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 2:17:38pm

re: #209 Maine's Michael

Iran could be laying low in Iraq so as not to give the US a pretext to launch an action. It does not have to be a quid pro quo, I suppose.

And there are apparently three carrier groups in place in/around the gulf at this time...

Is that true? Am I misreading the carrier location information at this site?

214 Carioca Canuck  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 2:24:24pm

Hmmm...so now they liberals want to accept the findings regarding Iran"as fact" from the same people they did not believe in regards to Iraq WMD's.

Must be an election year...or they are just hypocrites, liars and frauds.

Couldn't possibly be both. :^)

215 Optimizer  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 2:26:56pm

re: #105 Pro-Bush Canuck

re: #76 Killgore Trout

...

This is something I have long known deep down. It takes a Spengler to articulate it, however we should all be aware that atheism is a deeply anti-American creed which should be at best tolerated, and never, ever advanced as a useful model on which to base a society. i'm sorry if this offends, but truth is sometimes painful.

...

First of all, you might want to read up on a guy named Thomas Paine, and on the writings of the key Founding Fathers, before you start calling something "anti-American".

Second, atheism isn't a creed.

Third, atheism isn't even a philosophy, or a political system, so it doesn't make any sense to speak of it as something "on which to base society" (or not).

Fourth, drop the smug "I simply know I'm right, too bad for you" crap, along with the disingenuous "sorry if this offends". Do you think you're arguing with morons here?

216 Biff  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 2:40:43pm

This is just part of Condi's pay back to the Israelis based on her perception of the failure of Annapolis to meet her full agenda. She was not happy at all with the joint statement, which was why she was taking it to a closed Security Council session for further additions. When the Israelis threatened to pull out of the entire deal if it went the the Security Council, having the NSA pull the military response to Iran card off the table was her next move. Remember, she was the previous Security Advisor and Hadley and his staff are Condi's crew.

Just imagine what would have happened had Olmert and Livni shown some real backbone?

See Debka for more details.

217 Optimizer  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 2:53:09pm

Here's my analysis, for what it's worth:

After the US invasion of Iraq, Iran felt it could no longer be as blatant with its nuclear weapons program. It recognized that the "long pole in the tent" in the project was refining the weapons-grade nuclear material, so they stopped (or outsourced) the weapons development aspect of the program to take the heat off. They correctly reasoned that nobody would stop them from enriching - the most expensive and time-consuming part of the project - as long as the Chamberlains of the West could say "Look, they're not working on a weapon."

In short, they refine until they have enough for some bombs, then they develop their weapon quickly enough afterwards that they have it before anybody decides what to do about it. What's so hard to figure out?

I'd have to read the actual NIE report before I would denounce it for putting any kind of spin on the facts. For all I know, that could be pure MSM (but I wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't).

218 Militant-Infidel  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 2:58:14pm

Hello everybody from a newbie:

I listened to part of the live press conference. I thought they said they have high confidence that Iran shelved their COVERT nuclear weapons program (NWP). Since uranium enrichment is a dual use technology, and their enrichment program is now PUBLIC, one could conclude that it is now an open NWP.

During the Manhattan project, there were three sites, Hanford for plutonium, Savannah River for uranium, and Los Alamos for the technical development. It would have been hard to hide the first two with today's technology, but Los Alamos would have looked like any other military base from a satellite. The Iranians have simply hidden that which is easy to hide, and left the MSM to argue that uranium enrichment, by and of itself, is not a weapons program.

The semantics are killing me.

219 rocksane  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 3:17:54pm

The facts haven't changed:

*** 1:
Iran is still willing to destroy Israel.

*** 2
It's rather clear the Iranian Mullahs are able, sooner or later, to fulfill their fascist dream.

The only thing that changed, is that the Bush Administration seems to turn their back on Israel, by drawing changed conclusions from the facts:

[Link: www.iht.com...]

Mohamed ElBaradei, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, reported last month that Iran was now operating 3,000 uranium-enriching centrifuges, capable of producing fissile material for nuclear weapons. But his report said that agency inspectors in Iran had been unable to determine whether the Iranian program sought only to generate electricity or also to build weapons.

Again: nothing has changed: Nobody could ever say with certainty what Iran's actions and intentions really were. But the Bush Administration now says: As we don't know for sure, what's up, we simply believe the Iranians will probably be good guys.

Oh. And did I forget Annapolis?

220 Maine's Michael  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 3:48:03pm

Me likes the new crop of newbies.

221 Kohenan the Barbarian  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 3:52:54pm

The Bush administration has now given the military option to Israel alone--the timing of nuclearization of Iran is irrelevant to Israel as a dirty bomb or nuclear device will both be catastrophic for the survival of the Jewish State -- Iran currently possesses the rocketry for either--the martyrdom sacrifice of any number of Muslims as collateral damage is not a deterant to the Iranian Mullahs to strike first---the 2008 Republican Presidency is guaranteed if a war with Iran is Pre-empted by Israel--but not initiated by Bush--the geo-political landscape will be radically altered and Syria Hizballah and Hamas will lose all funding and support--the untangling of the Palestinian conundrum to allow a possible solution without the subterfuge of constant undermining by Iran is essential--first Iraq then North Korea finally Iran--Bush hits a home run in Presidential legacy!

222 Killgore Trout  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 4:09:08pm

re: #215 Optimizer

I just checked in to see if Canuk was going to defend that ridiculous article which he spammed onto a few threads and never bothered to defend. Oh well.

223 rocksane  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 4:12:54pm

re: #219 rocksane


*** 2
It's rather clear the Iranian Mullahs are able, sooner or later, to fulfill their fascist dream.

... should have said: "... the Iranian Mullahs are *technically* able, sooner or later ..."

224 BSM ENGINEER  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 4:25:35pm

Working in the Pentagon has proven one thing to me... there are those in the Intel community who want to embarrass the President. I would like to know how this was published in such a manner as to go against the intel he gets on a regular basis.

Also, Israel has an intel community which says just the opposite. Are we to believe that they are wrong and we are right? Heads should roll at the incompetence of the intel of this country!

225 My 2 Cents  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 5:04:32pm

re: #221 Kohenan the Barbarian

Ok, so you think that if Israel attacks Iran (preemptively) that will then encourage voters in the US to vote Republican in 2008? Is this because you think they will trust Republicans more than Democrats in a dangerous world? Perhaps. But what if (I mean, when) the MSM spins the whole story (repeatedly) as a failure of the Bush administration?

226 Sco  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 5:14:45pm

I haven't read the NYT news story, however, here is what the highly respected and connected Clifford May had to say about this story today over at The Corner:

Re: Iranian Nukes [Cliff May]

Jonah, the purpose of this NIE is to prevent Bush from using military force during the remainder of his term to destroy Iran's nuclear weapons program.

A friend, formerly at the CIA, tells me that while this NIE

does confirm Iran was pursuing nuclear weapons in 2002 and 2003, its conclusions that as to why it may have stopped the program and why this halt may have continued are debateable and speculation. These KJs [Key Judgments] have too much political spin. This assessment was strongly influenced by two hyper-partisan anti-Bush officials who oversaw it, both former State officials who fought tooth and nail against Bush WMD policies, especially Iran.

12/03 03:24 PM

227 Sco  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 5:18:40pm

Another skeptic of the NIE

[Link: www.weeklystandard.com...]

228 winston06  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 5:20:24pm

I dont believe NIE

229 PETN Sandwich  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 5:22:54pm

I do not think the NIE says what many think it says - kinda hard to claim one stopped a program four years ago when public domain satellite photos show construction going full bore.

re: #218 Militant-Infidel

230 Sharmuta  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 5:29:00pm

I don't believe it, otherwise we would have heard more from the IAEA one would think. The IAEA most certainly would have informed us of this move- mo el b would have shouted it from the roof tops and patted himself on the back. As much as I don't trust the IAEA- on this they would have told us- I mean- isn't that their job? To stop the spread? If iran had shelved it's program the IAEA would have claimed victory.

231 Kohenan the Barbarian  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 5:36:42pm

#225--2 cents--there has never been a change of party governance in the Presidency in an election during wartime in the history of the U.S. --the Dhimmi Demis are only talking retreat withdrawal and capitulation!--any other questions?

232 Shay4l  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 5:37:11pm

re: #200 Maine's Michael

This sums it up nicely.

As does this.

That was my immediate thought when this came out. We are rewarding Iran for not causing as much trouble in Iraq with this and other conciliatory gestures.

233 Poitiers-Lepanto  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 5:39:50pm

WOW !
This morning we were joking about this, now FOX ("we get the money from the saudis, you don't decide anything") tells me that the nukes are GONE, GONE, GONE.

I feel so much better now !

/Excellent "update" to the thread, BTW

234 Poitiers-Lepanto  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 5:40:28pm

PEACE IN OUR TIME !

235 Poitiers-Lepanto  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 5:44:34pm

We couldn't find the WMDs of a regime that had gassed thousands, now we DECLARE that the ayatollahs AREN'T running 3,000 uranium enrichment centrifuges.

We are so powerful !

/and I am not being sarcastic, we are powerful in terms of Weapons of Mass Idiotization

//and we had already declared islam a religion of peace and habbas a man of peace

///what do you know ? tomorrow I will be a saint !

236 Maine's Michael  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 5:52:05pm

Earth to 'Condi': STFU, already.

Rice said that the miserable living conditions of Palestinian refugees and their lack of economic opportunity has contributed to the violence in the region.

"These are people who have lived under the most extraordinarly trying circumstances, circumstances that can only breed despair and violence," she said, stressing the importance of offering a better economic environment for Palestinians as part of the renewed push for resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. .

237 Ledger1  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 5:59:19pm

re: #199 Kenneth

re: #187 Maine's Michael

Thanks for the tip. Your (cynical) cup runneth over. I'm not sure I agree, but then, I'm not sure I disagree either.

My hunch is this was a deliberate leak by Dems in the CIA to stop Bush from doing anything. The motivation is pure partisan power politics. I don't think they really care if Israel does the job for them or not. That's not their focus.

I mostly agree with Kenneth.

I think we are seeing partisan politics of the NYT, taqiyya from the mullahs, plus an inconclusive NIE report hyped by the MSM (in this case NYT and ABC).

As others have noted entire NIE report will remain classified but you can read a summary of the NIE Report here

If you read the legal document starting from page 9 to page 1 you find that it is a “on one hand – but on the other hand” guess that Iran may be able to build a nuclear bomb from scratch by 2009. What does this mean?

It means the intelligence agencies don’t know the exact date Iran will have an Atom bomb but it will have one (mostly likely soon).

As The Strata-Sphere Blog notes Iran Halted Nuclear Weapons Production in 2003? How Convenient

Given the political season it's a little too convenient.

238 scandalous?  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 6:00:26pm

... And I got a great bridge for sale.

In fact I can cut you a great deal on the Brooklyn Bridge 'cause I was born there. No, I wasn't born on the bridge.

239 The Bruce  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 6:00:59pm
This is the Bush/Baker administration telling Israel that it will condemn an eventual Israeli attack against Iranian nuclear facilities in the UN. Israel will be on it's own thanks to the Baker Administration. Bush sold out Israel.

Sad as hell to see an American President do this to a small democracy on the front lines. But we're living through it and guess what...not a peep out of the 20 or so Jewish Representatives and Senators in Congress. Nothing in seven years. Did anything say gutless?

240 Monroe  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 6:07:21pm

My next house will have a bomb fallout shelter.

241 Militant-Infidel  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 6:37:39pm

re: #229 PETN Sandwich

I agree totally. While listening to the live feed, all the MSM could ask about was "how did this administration get things SO wrong, etc." Nobody would ask the simple question: Are you saying that the covert nuclear weapon program is no longer active since the uranium enrichment is now publicly declared?

I kept muttering to myself: Will SOMEBODY just say it?

I feel the same way about the "War on Terrorism". Terrorism is a TACTIC not an enemy. I felt like my head was going to explode while waiting for GWB to actually name the enemy, namely islamofascism, and he never did. To quote somebody much more articulate than me: "We did not declare war on sneak attacks after Pearl Harbor."

242 Kobyashi Maru  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 8:03:34pm

This was "discovered" just after the failed attempt by Condi to ram a 3 state "solution: down Israel's throat? I doubt it. Annapolis was a WOFTAM for all involved, and this tidbit hangs Israel out to dry. If this was not so scary it would be funny! The report was not news, it was nothing purported to be something, telling our friends the mullahs to right ahead with their business, no worries from W. Gag me with a centrifuge!

243 Kobyashi Maru  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 8:14:48pm

Just read this prescient analysis from Stratfor

244 Fearless Fred  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 8:14:58pm

re: #15 Iron Fist

re: #10 Ziggy,

Wouldn't the later be proof that preemptive action in Iraq had a deterring effect on Iran?
Not that the L³eftists would ever admit it.

You'd think so . . .

245 The Bruce  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 8:19:36pm

If you think Bush has betrayed only the Israelis, read through this article about the slow death of democracy in Lebanon at the Weekly Standard. It is another one of the Bush family's treacheries--starting with the first Bush, who handed Lebanon to the Syrians in 1990 in return for 10,000 fake Syrian "solders" in the first Iraq War. Bush's son is handing it back to the Syrian's dictator's son.

[Link: www.weeklystandard.com...]

246 profitsbeard  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 8:54:43pm

People, people... this is reverse psychology.

The media and the generally-skeptical-about-intelligence populace will hear this declaration and think:

"I don't believe them for a second! They're the same idiots who didn't stop 9/11, got the Iraq WMD's wrong, and now I'm supposed to buy this B.S.! Hell, we'd better attack Iran now!"

Why would the press and people suddenly believe?

247 Omni  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 9:05:10pm

Either Bush has decided not to confront Iran or the agencies are continuing their anti-Bush sabotage and want to shield Iran while giving the Democrats an advantage in 08'.

Take your pick because I think we almost all agree that Iran is still working hard toward the bomb and that seems right to me too.

248 Ledger1  Mon, Dec 3, 2007 11:05:37pm

I will note that a chunk of our air power has been grounded for the foreseeable future.

A number of F-15s were grounded recently because of an airframe failure of an Air National Guard 15-C in November. I would assume this grounding represents a lot of fire power taken out of action.

Also, I would think that the F-15 would be a significant component of an air package against Iranian nuclear facilities (Proved bunker buster delivery system).

I wonder if the absence of these aircraft has put the destruction of Iranian nuclear facilities on hold.

If anyone knows speak up.

[Defense Industry Daily]

Following the crash of a Missouri Air National Guard F-15C aircraft Nov 2/07, the US Air Force suspended non-mission critical F-15 flight operations on Nov 3/07. While the cause of that accident is still under investigation, preliminary findings indicate that a structural failure during flight may have been responsible.

See: Defense industry daily

[Air Force]

11/4/2007 - WASHINGTON (AFPN) -- The Air Force suspended non-mission critical F-15 flight operations on Nov. 3 following the crash of a Missouri Air National Guard F-15C aircraft Nov. 2.
See: Air Force news

249 Excaliber  Tue, Dec 4, 2007 3:59:35am

WOW !

What an intelligence service huh ?

"they disbanded the weapons program four years ago " ?

Man ! We're really on the ball ! Kick us in the ass on Monday and we say "OUCH " on Friday .

Well , here's a thought to consider :

They could have restarted that program " a week later " , and ...it would only takes us till... 2012 or so to " discover it " ?

I'M REALLY FUCKING IMPRESSED

250 Excaliber  Tue, Dec 4, 2007 4:02:36am

Uh ...shouldn't we be embarrassed ? Oh ...I forgot ...this is the Reign of Bush-the-Dumber

251 Excaliber  Tue, Dec 4, 2007 4:06:58am

Forest Gump was right ...stupid is , as stupid does ...arrrggghhh !

Sorry for this outburst , I'll just go to the bathroom and pukes my brains out ...and shut up ...until the next outrageous insult to intelligence comes .


For as "the old adage goes " - just when you think your finished throwing up ...you're not .

252 Austin Conservative  Tue, Dec 4, 2007 4:39:57am

I call BS on this report. The sad thing, it will take a nuke going off in NYC or LA or both to wake the libtards up, but by then, many of them will be wafting in the vapor.

253 Kenneth  Tue, Dec 4, 2007 5:51:03am

re: #217 Optimizer

Your explanation has the virtue of the simplest plot, and is entirely consistant with past & present behavior. As for the NIE, the "positive" interpretation is this is a set-up & leak by Dem moles in the intelligence community to stymie Bush's pressure on Iran. The pessimistic interpretation is Bush is getting ready to punt on the Iranian problem.

Either way, this is bad news.

254 GreenSoccer  Tue, Dec 4, 2007 6:11:41am

re: #119 Eowyn2

His description today of his phonecall with CNN and with Larry King's show was a winner. And BTW Alan Colmes is a liar and a coward for saying that Michael Savage won't come on other people's shows. But Michael si asking for money. Are you going to contribute? I hope he does not end up like that comedian in the 1950's who went from comedy in his shows to discussing his freedom of speech law cases over the use of the f word.

If American intelligence says we need not be worried, and Harry Reid says we need not worry, does that mean we should worry, given their track record? Will they lose their pensions if they are wrong? Can we put them up against the wall and shoot them with a firing squad if they are wrong and they convinced us to let Iran become a psychopathic nuclear armed country? I think we should tell them that there is a death penalty attached to being wrong on this one and give them 3 months to review their study and to get back to us. They want to hit the snooze button.

255 Maine's Michael  Tue, Dec 4, 2007 6:18:39am

The NIE report conclusions are termed 'Key Judgments'.

These are the same folks whose 'Key Judgments' allowed North Korea a bomb, Libya to have a developed program, Khan of Pakistan to proliferate, and Syria to construct a bomb making facility (speculation).

The document therefore has import as a political weapon or tool, and is likely useless as a package of conclusions one can take to the bank.

So who is the weapon being aimed at? Bush, or Israel?

256 Militant-Infidel  Tue, Dec 4, 2007 6:20:13am

re: #243 Kobyashi Maru

Just read this prescient analysis from Stratfor

Good reference KM.

The only problem with this analysis is its assumption that the Iranian Mullahs behave logically (from a western perspective) and have a survival instinct (again from a western perspective). One does not have to delve too deeply into the theology of Twelver Shia Islam to realize that both assumptions are wrong.

Academic question: What is required for the return of the Hidden Imam?

257 Maine's Michael  Tue, Dec 4, 2007 6:22:34am

re: #254 GreenSoccer

Also, what ever happened to the concept of 'being sure'?

When it comes to the possibility of a weapon in the hands of potential lunatics, are we not better off denying them the possibility of having a weapon rather than counting on them to not behave as lunatics?

The mafia had it right.

'Why take a chance?'

/line from 'Casino'

258 Kenneth  Tue, Dec 4, 2007 7:05:43am

re: #256 Militant-Infidel

The funny thing about the Stratfor analysis is that it dove-tails rather well with the argument Maine's Michael linked to yesterday, which I dismissed as "speculative". I still think it's specualtive, but the version supported by Stratfor is perhaps less paranoid, if still rather cynical. Well, I think we have all learned to be cynical when it comes to Bush's flip-flops on foreign policy. One day he's railing like Churchill, the next day he's cooing like Chamberlain.

Optimizer had a good post up thread, reasoning the Iranians "shelved" their domestic nuclear weapons program while continuing their nuclear energy program -which just happens to produce nuclear weapons fuel. Menawhile the Iranians outsorced their baom program to Syria & North Korea. Iranian & Syrian engineers were present for the North Korean nuclear test, Syrian engineers were killed in that huge train explosion in North Korea a few years back, and of course, the Iranians were involved with that Syrian site that Israel bombed in September. So it's pretty hard to argue the Iranians have shelved the nuclear program; they've just outsourced the bomb building part.

259 rocksane  Tue, Dec 4, 2007 7:39:01am

One thing that really needs clarification, because it sounds troubling to me, more than anything else: quote from the NIE:

Our assessment that Iran halted the program in 2003 primarily in response to international pressure indicates Tehran’s decisions are guided by a cost-benefit approach rather than a rush to a weapon irrespective of the political, economic, and military costs. This, in turn, suggests that some combination of threats of intensified international scrutiny and pressures, along with opportunities for Iran to achieve its security, prestige, and goals for regional influence in other ways, might—if perceived by Iran’s leaders as credible—prompt Tehran to extend the current halt to its nuclear weapons program. It is difficult to specify what such a combination might be. [Emphasis added]

Does this mean: We simply give the Iranians what they want, so they don't need violence, or the threat of it, to achieve it?

Credits

260 jayzee  Tue, Dec 4, 2007 7:40:19am

This thread seems long dead now, but I think this is more than coincidental that this NIE was released after it was made public that Kissinger urged Nixon to ignore the Israeli nuclear weapons program.

Difference was the Israelies don't want to start a nuclear war, and they also had no problem keeping their mouths shit too. The Iranians are already demanding justice.

261 Poitiers-Lepanto  Tue, Dec 4, 2007 8:17:13am

Oh yeah, a really DEAD thread.
And possibly a DEATH thread.

This morning Bush spoke and from his confused double speaking now we know what all this story means: the military option is off the table.

The consequences are unfathomable.

262 rocksane  Tue, Dec 4, 2007 8:39:25am

re: #248 Ledger1


A number of F-15s were grounded recently because of an airframe failure of an Air National Guard 15-C in November. I would assume this grounding represents a lot of fire power taken out of action.

.. no need to greater worries, as it seems: The machine with the mishap was an old F-15C model. Already Nov. 21 about 75% of the F-15's inspected and cleared for flight:

There are nearly 700 F-15s in the Air Force inventory. As of today, 219 of the 224 E-models and 294 of the 442 A-D models in the inventory have been inspected and cleared for flight.
263 GreenSoccer  Tue, Dec 4, 2007 9:38:56am

If they are wrong, can we rename the department American Stupidity?

264 doubledip  Tue, Dec 4, 2007 11:29:11am

What I wanna know is...why didn't Bush, who allegedly-so-elegantly "pulled off" 9/11, simply intercept this info and cover it up with the lies he's allegedly so good at telling by engineering another 9/11 (perpetrated by crazed Iranians, of course) to manufacture the "real" reason to attack Iran? Isn't that what "troofers" claim Bush's M.O. to be? Or is that one of the questions we're not supposed to ask, as it doesn't fit in neatly with "troofer" theories?

265 Excaliber  Tue, Dec 4, 2007 11:33:06am

Blame the what ? "Lib-tards " ?

A leak by who ? Democrats ?


- man , get your heads out from up your asses ...we got an intelligent service / self perpetuating community , that doesn't know what the fuck it's doing .

And while the Dems and Reps piss on each others leg , we cut OURSELVES off at the knees .

Is there no limit to the absurd contentiousness of partisan politics ?

We haven't learned a fucking thing from 9/11 , where incompetence and political /infighting/office politik , which allowed a bunch of backward-ass barbarians with boxcutters , to kill 3000 Americans and cause a trillion dollars in damage .

266 campisi  Tue, Dec 4, 2007 12:43:06pm

Anybody else see a tit for tat agreement with the Iranians? They stop killing our boys and girls with EFP's shipped into Iraq and we release this report ... they seem to be upholding their end so we held ours?

267 GreenSoccer  Tue, Dec 4, 2007 3:14:14pm

Two points not made by me:
1. Medved said it made sense for Iran to take a breather from making nuclear weapons after the US got rid of the nuclear threat from Iraq. Thank you the US.
2. Savage is saying that Iran started a disinformation campaign and the dems arranged for this to be released by I person with no foreign experience because they don't have the Iraq war to hit the GOP over the head with anymore.

I buy into the fact that if they are making nuclear fuel and they have the know how, they can put it together any time they feel like it with the help of N Korea and Syria.

268 GreenSoccer  Tue, Dec 4, 2007 3:24:41pm

Oh yah and Savage says
""What kind of American Intelligence is it that discovers in Dec 2007 that in 2003 Iran stopped work on nuclear weapons?"

Also I wonder if they did not lead Israel to that disgraceful example of a peace conference with the Jews being asked to come in through the servants' doors, with a promise to help out with Iran, and then within less than a week they release info that there is no Iran threat, they think.

269 Maine's Michael  Tue, Dec 4, 2007 3:41:36pm
Also I wonder if they did not lead Israel to that disgraceful example of a peace conference with the Jews being asked to come in through the servants' doors, with a promise to help out with Iran, and then within less than a week they release info that there is no Iran threat, they think.

I still can;t get over the servant's door thing.

Rice and Bush will have some explaining to do when they get to pearly gates and find Moses there, breathing fire and tapping his foot.

270 GreenSoccer  Tue, Dec 4, 2007 3:58:26pm

The part in quotes was from Savage.
The part not in quotes was from me from Carl in Jerusalem and from Caroline Glick.

When I sent the info to people I know, they responded that it was their understanding that women, too, had to come in thru the servant's entrance. They asked... did that include Condi?

271 Ledger1  Wed, Dec 5, 2007 3:20:03am

re: #262 rocksane

re: #248 Ledger1


A number of F-15s were grounded recently because of an airframe failure of an Air National Guard 15-C in November. I would assume this grounding represents a lot of fire power taken out of action.

.. no need to greater worries, as it seems: The machine with the mishap was an old F-15C model. Already Nov. 21 about 75% of the F-15's inspected and cleared for flight:


There are nearly 700 F-15s in the Air Force inventory. As of today, 219 of the 224 E-models and 294 of the 442 A-D models in the inventory have been inspected and cleared for flight.

That is good to hear.

I was thinking the dems would hamstring funding to get those planes flying. This F-15 grounding coupled with the current 180 degree NIE report would seem to put Bush in a bind should he have to act. But, it looks like a good portion of the F15s are flying.

272 GreenSoccer  Wed, Dec 5, 2007 5:28:32am

Whenever Fox insists on talking about animal stories I switch to Msnbc. So that happened this morning. So MSNBC was saying that Bush and Condi are unbelievable about not having heard the story before about no nukes in Iran therefore Biden should come back and start hearings and have Bush and Condi testify under oath. Groan. I figured the animal story was over, so I switched back to Fox. I wonder if the dems give MSNBC talking points.
It was 1 guy, wasn't it, a defector from Iran who stated this? Why is he not seen as a disinformation person?
It looks like Bush will have a hard time dealing with Iran within the year before he goes.
.But Carl in Jerusalem's news last week made it sound like Condi had joined in rebellion against Bush.
The animal story is back. I have to go change the channel. Some thing like 6 million animals are put to sleep every year in the US and the brain dead mouths without brains MSM thinks it is a good idea to have the US public wake up to a different one that will die each morning- a good way to start the day cheerfully. Stupid!@@#$$%% and they wonder why people are watching less. They want to follow the way of newspapers. Yet they make more money than the average intelligent American, and they get books published. Go figure.

273 GreenSoccer  Wed, Dec 5, 2007 6:06:42am

Now people are making the distinction between "suspending the program" and ending it, since the report was that Iran suspended it, but of course not the making of the fuel.

274 EE  Wed, Dec 5, 2007 6:23:03am

Sooner or later Iran will have nuclear weapons.

All of the clash of opinions concerns trying to estimate the date that they will get them. With their centrifuges spinning, they will eventually get a quantity of weapons-grade uranium, sufficient for making an atomic bomb. And then they will have a quantity of weapons-grade uranium sufficient for making two, three, ... bombs.

Iran will eventually have nuclear weapons. The more important question is whether when they get the nuclear weapons, will the extremist mullahs be in power? Will the Hojatiehs be in power? Ahmadinejad's Ayatollah mentor is close to the Hojatieh movement. The Hojatieh movement wants to have chaos in the world -- think of nukes and the chaos that nuclear exchanges can cause -- in order to force the 12th imam the Mahdi out of his holy hole in Qum, Iran.

When -- not if -- Iran gets nuclear weapons, will Iran still be revolutionary Islamic Iran, with its Islamic Revolutionary Guards, bent on global jihad?
That is the main question: when Iran gets nukes, who will be in power there, and what sort of government will they have?

Everything that we have considered doing, short of regime change, has only been designed to buy more time, to delay the time when Iran gets nuclear weapons. But what are we going to do with that time?

What needs to happen to Revolutionary Islamic Iran is regime change, so that it is not bent on global jihad. The fanatics who rule Iran need to be ousted, and a moderate regime put in place. That is what we need to do with the time that remains until Iran gets nukes.

Have we forgotten the art of regime change?

275 EE  Wed, Dec 5, 2007 6:32:21am

With this NIE report, the option of striking at Iran's nuclear facilities becomes shelved. It is not on the table any more. Because that is a desperate measure that seeks to gain more time (since Iran can rebuild any destroyed facilities -- it just takes more time).

We have to start thinking about what to do with that time, and not wait until the situation is desperate.

What makes sense is to use that time to carry out regime change.

There was a time when we knew how to do regime change. Have we forgotten how to do that?

There is no regime on earth that is more deserving of regime change than the apocalypse-seeking regime of Iran, bent on global jihad, and on a track for having an eventual nuclear weapons capability.

What are we waiting for?

276 GreenSoccer  Wed, Dec 5, 2007 10:11:59am

The problem is Bush only has 1 more year. The dems don't see the need for regime change because they think that America is the problem. A lot depends on who wins the position of representing the GOP.I personally don't want Huckabee winning it. He has too much white man guilt. However he is a Southern Evangelical and I heard that 4 million evangelicals do not vote and maybe they will if he heads the party. Ron Paul would not get involved in Iran.
The others are probably grounded enough to try for regime change. So if the dems or Huckabee of Ron Paul are in charge, no regime change. If the Gop is in charge, other than the 2 mentioned, maybe they can keep working at it. Has anyone heard Huckabee say anything about Iran?


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