Peter Brown says that by closing Guantanamo Bay, Barack Obama is gambling none of the released detainees will come back to haunt him in 2012.

By ordering the closing of the Guantanamo Bay prison and taking the fate its detainees out of his own hands, President Barack Obama is gambling that none of them will come back to haunt him in the 2012 election.

There are several potential scenarios that could create political problems for Mr. Obama, but one stands out: a Guantanamo detainee finds his way to freedom and takes part in a terrorist attack, especially one that kills Americans. Think of the impact of Willie Horton—multiplied.

It’s not hard to imagine the television commercial from Mr. Obama’s 2012 opponent arguing that the president’s naiveté about how the world works cost American lives.