How a political wave builds
With 2010 now just days away(!), every political analyst and junkie in the country is looking for the signs of whether a wave either directed at Democrats or incumbents more generally is building in the country
A new analysis that examines every midterm election since 1978 — conducted by the Democratic polling firm Bennett, Petts & Normington — suggests the critical factor in whether 2010 will be a wave election in which large numbers of House seats change parties or simply a typical midterm election where the President’s party suffers losses consistent with historical norms is, in a word, turnout.