122 degrees F! Predicted future heat waves in the United States of America. Important post.
There has been so much noise about that few have noticed the following report, or attempt by the government to communicate the most likely outcomes on the United States from AGW.
The following site is of great interest.
Consider this from MIT.
The new projections are considerably warmer than the 2003 projections; for example, the median surface warming in 2091–2100 is 5.1°C compared to 2.4°C in the earlier study. Many changes contribute to the stronger warming; among the more important ones are taking into account the cooling in the second half of the twentieth century due to volcanic eruptions for input parameter estimation and a more sophisticated method for projecting gross domestic product (GDP) growth, which eliminated many low-emission scenarios.
I don’t want you to miss that point.
… the median surface warming in 2091–2100 is 5.1°C …
This is using mid range predictions.
Now of course, this is a global average over a long time period. What about heat waves themselves? What about the spike above this new higher mean?
And please notice already that 5.1 C is a doomsday scenario that we are marching towards in the midrange. Similar analysis from the Hadley Center and LANL agrees with these numbers - in a business as usual world, using mid range projections - not outlier models.
Well look no further than here for the Government report.
A summary of the report is here:
Much of the southern United States is projected to have more than twice as many days per year above 90°F by the end of this century.
By century’s end, extreme [i.e. peak] temperatures of up to 122°F would threaten most of the central, southern, and western U.S. Even worse, Houston and Washington, DC could experience temperatures exceeding 98°F for some 60 days a year.
I am sorry, let me bold that.
Temperatures of up to 122°F would threaten most of the central, southern, and western U.S. Even worse, Houston and Washington, DC could experience temperatures exceeding 98°F for some 60 days a year
And please remember that this is under mid range predictions.
Now what would the effect of that be on crops? That is another discussion. What about sea level rise? Another discussion. Spread of contagion? Another discussion.
Just consider right now how you would handle a 122 degree F day :)