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1 garhighway  Wed, Apr 13, 2011 8:58:02am

It would be interesting to see some projections that assume the following:

Bush tax cuts expire
Economy continues to grow at 2.8% per year
Iraq war ends
Afghanistan war ends
HCR moves forward

And see what that does to the budget over the next 10 years.

From that baseline case, we could then make some intelligent decisions.

2 Political Atheist  Wed, Apr 13, 2011 9:00:31am

re: #1 garhighway

Or perhaps when we quit sending big money to those countries. It's not all guns troops and food. All that aid to help the new regimes adds up.

3 lawhawk  Wed, Apr 13, 2011 9:36:28am

re: #1 garhighway

CBO figures would normally would take the expiration of the Bush cuts into play - as now extended through 2012. Assumptions about spending on Iraq, Afghanistan, and others are not counted because they're highly variable, but the CBO could score those costs based on what they're told to do w/r/t those costs - and you could make an assumption that the costs will remain level or decline at x percent over the next number of years as the US winds down in Iraq, Afghanistan, etc. The CBO would also score based on assumptions about economic growth.

Other factors - a more accurate reflection on the AMT scoring, which gets adjusted annually by Congress, but which the CBO scores budget bills/tax bills based on the AMT as in effect in the current tax year, meaning it expects billions more in revenues than it ultimately receives because adjusting the thresholds for inflation means fewer people are hit with the AMT.

To me, it's time to end the AMT dance, roll it into the standard rates, and increase the standard rates accordingly to result in the same revenue that would have been generated had the AMT been in effect. So, the 33% and 35% rates in effect for 2010, 2011, and 2012 tax years would be increased beyond the pre-EGTRRA/JGTRRA/Obama cuts of 36% and 39.6% and result in something like a 38% and 42% tax (roughly speaking). A further reduction of deductions and credits would enable maintaining existing tax rates, ease compliance burdens, and increase available revenues.


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