10 Points on Al Qaeda
1. Today Al Qaeda is at a low point administratively and organizationally. There is a growing struggle for leadership developing. Ayman al Zawahiri is not the inspirational Emir that Osama bin Laden was. Everyone in the terrorism field agrees that Zawahiri is abrasive and is not liked by many in AQ. According to government intelligence (current and former) AQ is at a membership slow down as well.
2. Now Iran is once again being considered for an AQ safe haven in that part of South Asia. Zawahiri and surviving AQ middle management have strong ties to Iran. Also, in the past year and a half, 20 of Al Qaeda’s top 30 leaders identified by American intelligence have been killed. Pakistan is no longer as safe as it was for AQ leaders.
3. At the operational level, AQ is still a deadly threat and intelligence intercepts suggesting WMD of the deadly toxin types are resurfacing. This is the type of weapon that is easily transported and delivered to a targeted nation. I would say that AQ is as deadly as it has always been, but less than capable to carry out another 9/11 operation, at least in the USA.
4. AQ is no longer a single movement led from the top by bin Laden or anyone else. It now comprises affiliates that spread from the Philippines to the Sahel. Somalia and most recently Nigeria – the Boko Harum group - have established a relationship within this Jihadi terrorism “franchise.” Formal affiliation with AQ helps to bring in funding from wealthy Jihadi sympathizers or “tribute payers” (for insurance against attacks!) in the Gulf States, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, to name but a few locations.
5. Muslim youth today that are influenced by AQ and its call for Jihad make up a small percentage, so far, of the Muslim populations, particularly those located in the EU and the USA. However, that number could spread if propagandizing via some overwhelmingly successful attack were to occur against the “infidel” anywhere in the Western World
6. I see more of a Muslim Brotherhood influence in the current “Arab Spring” uprisings. Not so much at this time of AQ. However, it is very possible due to the disarray and violence in Egypt, Syria and Libya that AQ supporters may slip into leading roles using the Muslim Brotherhood as cover. Neither group is good for the Western World. It was the MB that created the belief system that AQ was founded upon. Zawahiri is a former MB member.
7. Key elements of AQ I believe have shifted to Yemen, Somalia and the Maghreb. Yemen in particular will become the key area or jumping off spot internationally for future AQ activities. Next to watch is the Salafi movement (AQIM) in Algeria, Morrocco and the Sahel. They will be focusing on the EU, while Al Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula (AQAP), located in Yemen, will focus on U.S. targets worldwide. In particular the American homeland, according to many US experts.
8. Perhaps AQ’s most lasting legacy will be the decentralization that mushroomed under its guidance by spreading terrorist affiliates around the world. This includes not only full-fledged organizations, but “lone wolves” as well.
9. Predictions: Look for closer ties with Iran and Hizb-Allah by AQ affiliates. A spreading of Al Qaeda encouraged violence across Nigeria and the Sahel. Eventually a major Jihadi attack against the West. Or several smaller ones in nature but not violence against one specific nation after another.
10. The one thing Al Qaeda and its affiliates cannot do is remain passive for any length of time. They then become perceived as irrelevant to “the cause.” Then the funding, Jihad volunteers and other sources of support dry up!
By: Lawrence Martines (Well known AT/CT Expert with 35 years experience and many publications.)