Young White Voters Move Toward the GOP
From the start of the 2008 primary, young voters offered enthusiastic and historic support to Obama’s presidential campaign. Youth turnout likely made the difference between victory and defeat for Obama in the Democratic primary, and young voters provided most of Obama’s 2008 margin of victory: While Obama won 66 percent of 18-29 year old voters, he won just 50 percent of those 30 and older.
Although youth turnout is understandably cited as a challenge facing the Obama campaign, Obama’s actual support among young voters receives less attention. After all, polls continue to show Obama faring well among young voters, and Obama’s losses are commensurate with losses among other age groups. This is because of the diversity of the millennial generation. According to the exit polls, 40 percent of 18 to 29-year-old voters were non-white, compared to just 19 percent of voters over age 30. With Obama holding strong among non-white voters, his continuing strength among young voters is unsurprising. But Obama’s strength among all young voters obscures substantial declines in Obama’s support among young white voters, who today appear poised appear to vote much more like their parents and grandparents than they did in 2008.
Although young white voters were not nearly as supportive of Obama’s candidacy as young non-white voters, Obama still fared much better among younger white voters than older white voters. Four years ago, 54 percent of 18 to 29-year-old white voters voted for Obama, compared to just 41 percent of white voters over age 30.