The ‘Playboy General’ Who Would Lead Syria
slate.com
Defected Syrian Gen. Manaf Tlass Photograph by Adem Altan/GettyImages.
“Bashar is president or we burn down the country!” That is the menacing message being scrawled on burnt houses and bullet-pocked stone walls by pro-Assad forces as they make their way across Syria. The graffiti often appears following an assault by the Shabiha, an Alawite militia drawn from the same sectarian community as the country’s elite. Days into the regime’s siege of Aleppo, President Bashar al-Assad is now sending the same message to Syria’s financial capital and largest city. Convoys of regime forces have encircled Aleppo, and Air Force jets and helicopters are now pounding rebel-controlled neighborhoods. “Aleppo will be the last battle waged by the Syrian army to crush the terrorists,” boasted Al Watan, a pro-regime newspaper, “and after that Syria will emerge from the crisis.”
The rebels are confident, too. They have stock piled ammunition, medical supplies, and called in reinforcements from insurgent battalions across northern Syria, as well as sympathizers from abroad. “Tunisians, Egyptians, and Libyans,” said one activist, who says he saw fighters from these countries in a mountain camp outside the city. The battle for Aleppo is shaping up to be a decisive moment in Syria’s civil war, as the Syrian army carries out a full military assault on a city of 2 million people.
Some of the most critical blows to Assad’s regime have come far from the battlefield. In recent months, Assad’s top political, diplomatic, and military circles have suffered a number of prominent defections. None may be more significant than Brig. Gen. Manaf Tlas, the most prominent military defector thus far. The Sunni Muslim general has ties to both the Alawite establishment and the military elite. A figure as senior as Tlas may seem late to have quite the regime—he defected on June 6, 2012—but his timing may be perfect. Arab and Western governments are rushing to put together a transitional strategy for post-Assad Syria. Tlas appears to be backed by Saudi Arabia and, according to the Wall Street Journal, U.S. officials are in discussions with Middle East governments to place Tlas at the “center of a political transition.” “If he’s pushed by desperate big powers, its wishful thinking,” says Salman Shaikh, director of the Brookings Doha Center. “They are scrambling. They’ve chosen the wrong man with a very dubious background and history.”
Indeed, the very history and connections that give Tlas some currency at the highest reaches of Assad’s regime are also likely to reduce his appeal to the rebel forces he would need to unite.
The Tlas family certainly has long and familiar ties with the Assad family. Manaf Tlas’ father, Mustapha Tlas, a former defense minister was part of the fearsome “old guard” that served the Assads for decades and helped arrange a smooth transition of power when Bashar al-Assad inherited the presidency following his father’s death in 2000. But some parts of the younger Tlas’ background and political pedigree make him a more appealing potential unifier. He’s a Sunni Muslim—like more than 70 percent of Syria—with close ties to the West, especially in France. His sister, Nahred Ojjeh, is a wealthy Parisian socialite. She’s married to a Saudi businessman with extensive contacts in the Gulf. There is little doubt that Manaf Tlas is Saudi Arabia’s choice for a prominent role in a future Syrian state.
