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1 Randall Gross  Jun 26, 2014 12:31:00pm

Even the smartest people can be wrong when trying to predict the future. Clifford Stoll is that guy - he’s famous for tracking down an antediluvian hacker….

amazon.com

2 Targetpractice  Jun 26, 2014 12:31:34pm

I’ll give him one thing, the predicted shift in classrooms from teachers to multimedia computers has not truly happened. Yeah, there’s computer labs in schools, but most things are still done the old-fashioned way, with boards, papers, and pencils.

3 Shiplord Kirel  Jun 26, 2014 12:32:54pm

Never occurred to him that various clever types might carve off little pieces of the net and introduce editing, order, moderation, and posting standards, with reviewers and critics inevitably following.
In fact, this was already going on in 1995 if he had bothered to learn the basics of how it worked.

4 Kragar  Jun 26, 2014 12:34:53pm

re: #2 Targetpractice

I’ll give him one thing, the predicted shift in classrooms from teachers to multimedia computers has not truly happened. Yeah, there’s computer labs in schools, but most things are still done the old-fashioned way, with boards, papers, and pencils.

My kids’ school has tablets in every classroom now, and her IEP work was all done on tablets so the teachers could monitor her progress and upload it to the district

5 Targetpractice  Jun 26, 2014 12:36:00pm

re: #4 Kragar

My kids’ school has tablets in every classroom now, and her IEP work was all done on tablets so the teachers could monitor her progress and upload it to the district

Damn, things really have changed in the last decade.

6 team_fukit  Jun 26, 2014 1:02:56pm

re: #2 Targetpractice

Higher Ed is also moving ever closer to implementing “MOOCs” (pronounced “mooks” haha) or “Massive Open Online Courses” in which one instructor and maybe a handful of teaching assistants will teach and grade a course of approximately 1000 students, depending on individual university MOOC caps, all done completely online.

7 Kragar  Jun 26, 2014 1:08:06pm

Personally, I like the “Cyberbusiness will never work because there are no salespeople” part.

8 Targetpractice  Jun 26, 2014 1:13:41pm

re: #7 Kragar

Personally, I like the “Cyberbusiness will never work because there are no salespeople” part.

Yeah, just ask Circuit City…oh, wait…

9 De Kolta Chair  Jun 26, 2014 1:41:15pm

“I predict the Internet 0x2026 will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.” —Robert Metcalfe, founder of 3Com, inventor of Ethernet, tech pundit and columnist

Metcalfe came to eat his words — or at least drink them. In his keynote speech at the Sixth International WWW Conference, Metcalfe relented, put a copy of the infamous InfoWorld column in a blender, and quaffed the pureed prediction.

informationweek.com

10 A'isha  Jun 26, 2014 2:30:17pm

At least he fessed up to how wrong he was.

Of my many mistakes, flubs, and howlers, few have been as public as my 1995 howler.

Wrong? Yep.

At the time, I was trying to speak against the tide of futuristic commentary on how The Internet Will Solve Our Problems.

Gives me pause. Most of my screwups have had limited publicity: Forgetting my lines in my 4th grade play. Misidentifying a Gilbert and Sullivan song while suddenly drafted to fill in as announcer on a classical radio station. Wasting a week hunting for planets interior to Mercury’s orbit using an infrared system with a noise level so high that it couldn’t possibly detect ‘em. Heck - trying to dry my sneakers in a microwave oven (a quarter century later, there’s still a smudge on the kitchen ceiling)

And, as I’ve laughed at others’ foibles, I think back to some of my own cringeworthy contributions.

Now, whenever I think I know what’s happening, I temper my thoughts: Might be wrong, Cliff…

11 Targetpractice  Jun 26, 2014 4:30:56pm

re: #10 A’isha

At least he fessed up to how wrong he was.

He’s good to admit it, which I think is something you won’t hear a lot from the various “prognosticators” we’ve had show up on the scene. And as I was going to comment earlier, he wrote that column back in the days of CRT monitors, Windows 95, 56K dial-up modems, and AOL being the way much of America explored the internet. It doesn’t really surprise me, upon reflection, that he saw the slow crawl things were taking and decided that it would ultimately burn itself out.


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