Donald Trump Is Losing Because He Should Be Winning
In sports terminology: this race is Donald’s to lose, and that’s just what he’s doing…
In a race against an extremely unpopular Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton, at a time of flagging economic growth and weak wages, the Republicans should have a real electoral advantage. But Trump can’t seize that advantage — partly because he’s so divisive.
This isn’t just spitballing or speculation. For decades now, political scientists have been building models that can predict the outcome of presidential elections based on a few basic criteria — without even looking at the polls. Check the state of the economy, factor in any incumbency advantage, see how popular the sitting president is, and, with a little math, you can guess the vote totals within a few percentage points — and most years the popular vote matches the outcome in the Electoral College.
According to these kinds of models, the Republicans should be ahead.