In Putin’s calculus, U.S. needs Russia more than Russia needs the U.S.

Putin, analysts say, doesn’t seem concerned about a looming breakup with Washington - he’s confident there’ll be no U.S. military intervention and has decided to weather any other potential consequences.

Olga Oliker, a Russia specialist and senior international policy analyst at the RAND Corporation research center in Washington, said the tug-of-war over Ukraine is part of a bigger divergence: competing visions from Washington and Moscow over the ideal future for Russia.

“We think what’s good for Russia is stability in the neighborhood, economic growth,” Oliker said. “But Russia, or at least Vladimir Putin, thinks what’s most important is that Russia is taken seriously, and that a strong Russia is one that sticks to its guns and gets what it wants.”

In the case of the Ukraine, analysts say, it’s likely that Putin will do just that. The United States and its allies could impose economic sanctions, kick Russia out of the G-8 forum for industrialized democracies and issue stern condemnations, but none of that is likely to sway Putin.

By his math, the U.S. and its allies need Russia more than Russia needs them. Russia exports natural gas to Europe, is the world’s third-largest military spender, and wields veto power on the United Nations Security Council. As an ally of President Bashar Assad, Russia has made itself instrumental in talks on how to resolve the Syrian civil war. Russia is also a key player in the mammoth effort to dismantle Syria’s chemical weapons arsenal under an agreement that saved the Obama administration from making good on threats of a military strike and one of the six nations negotiating with Iran over that country’s nuclear program.