re: #114 Archangelus

Small question folks, how reliable are Princeton’s electoral vote histograms?

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election.princeton.edu

Seen this referenced before, and wanna be hopeful…

Well, here’s the thing - we only have Presidential elections every 4 years, so the N is very small to try and determine accuracy.

Sam Wang and Nate Silver try to do the same thing, each with their own particular take on probability and percent uncertainty, and come up with similar expected outcomes with very different percent probabilities. In 2012, they both pretty much hit the nail on the head. But with an N of 1 every 4 years, it is not really possible to know whose probabilities are more accurate.