re: #66 silverdolphin

I’ve been working on a presentation examining how communities adapt to change. Here is something I created that I find both horrifying and interesting. The rates at which new innovations penetrate the market place is exponentially increasing.

Here are the market penetration curves for refrigerators, cars, microwaves, etc.

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So, in 1900, it took a new technology 100 years for go from 10% to 90% of the market. Thirty-five years later, this was down to 50 years. By 1970 it was 25 years. 2005 it was 12 and by 2040 it will be 5 years!!Now, this is just a model and there are things to do to make it better. There are not a lot of data regarding market penetration 100 years ago compared to today. So all this could be an artifact. Or the actual rate could be a little different.

BUT, it certainly fits the way many of us feel - the world is changing to much faster today. You barely get used to something when something new comes along. Should you stick with the old way or move to the new one? where before you had years to make the choice, now you have days. And it your community is not organized to deal with that, well, you get the MAGAs.

None of the other things (except autos and telephones) could happen without an electric network first.

A flip to this is it’s a lot harder to build out an electric network for a continent-wide nation than it is to sell refrigerators, radios, or cell phones which are all built in one place then shipped.