My sense of Judge Merchan sentencing Trump is that while Trump is a first time convicted felon, his long history of criminal conduct in NY and malfeasance, including the Trump Org conviction on business fraud, will come into play. While some people have suggested Trump will not see jail, I do think it’s likely he’s going to spend at least some time in prison.

Why? Because there are numerous and significant cases of business fraud leading to prison sentences, even for first time offenders.

Trump has shown a reckless disregard for facts, truth, and lies to the public about everything relating to the case (see the claim that he didn’t know what the charges even were, even though while under oath, he stated to the court that he did). He’s attacked the fundamental and bedrock principles of the criminal justice system, violated gag order repeatedly, putting officers of the court in jeopardy, putting jurors in jeopardy, and his actions warrant prison.

I think he’s going to spend a year in prison. That will probably be due to 34 counts of 1 year in prison, served concurrently. I do not think that he gets more than a year in prison, but he could get some combination of terms to result in jail time.