re: #124 Dangerman (misuser of the sarc tag)

re: #110 HappyWarrior

That’s why I’m glass half full. I get why it’s easy to despair but I’m seeing a movement build in this country. I’ve gone from having Republicans directly represent me in three places- the Virginia state legislature, state senate, and the House to having Democrats. My county is more Democratic than where I live as a whole but where I live is trending more Democratic too. Virginia now has a Democratic majority in both of our legislatures. We can’t despair.

i happened to mention this yesterday, and reliably, this AM’s electoral-vote.com

First of all, there is no question that the demographic groups Republicans rely on are, on the whole, shrinking. The demographic groups that Democrats rely on are, on the whole, growing. The current Republican coalition will, very soon, no longer be enough to elect presidents, even accounting for structural advantages like the GOP domination of small, low-population states. Either the Party can re-align and find a way to attract new voters (like the Republicans, 1968-80, for example), or it can punt presidential elections for a long time (like the Democrats, 1860-1912, for example).

Just for myself, I happen to agree with this conclusion, but at the same time, I think all the demographic/age-cohort/realignment/coalition stuff is going to be utterly (and potentially fatally) irrelevant to the 2020 elections. We are going to have to wage the next Presidential campaign with the demographic we have next year - not some future “very soon” demographic - and the electorate in 2020 isn’t likely to be SO different from that of 2016. Which electorate delivered the WH (even if narrowly) to what would have been otherwise a joke candidate. What is needed, (IM unsolicited O) is a campaign structured around fundamental principles of governance, and a downplaying of “ideology” per se. The hardcore Trump “base”, despite all their online/media frothing, is a lot smaller than they want the public to think: sadly, so is the anti-Trump “base”. The election (like it or not) is going to be won or lost in the middle. Both geographically and ideologically.

PS:More unsolicited analysis: my bets for Dem win states next year: (in order of likelihood): NV, NC, AZ, PA, MI, OH, WI (election fuckery), FL (wild-card as usual).
Long-shots for flip: KY, GA. TX: close, but no cigar.
“Bet” being used very non-literally here.