re: #145 Targetpractice

Yeah, that’s another reason that it’s sort of hard to justify a no-fly zone at this point: Despite the civilian losses, the country appears to be holding its own and could potentially force Russia to withdraw from the war without NATO intervention.

Somehow, I think that might be the stronger precedent, that NATO can remain the “Arsenal of Democracy” that readily supports non-NATO democracies in future conflicts without getting directly involved. That the US can begin to ease back from its post as the “World’s Policeman.” And that Russia ruined itself for no appreciable gain in the end.

If Russia finds itself a situation where they’re losing, I can all too easily see Putin going full scorched earth on Ukraine. I was talking with a friend yesterday, and we both kind of figured that Putin not only has some variety of messianic complex but that he’s conflated his own personal existence with that of Russia itself - “I am Russia!” is what Putin seems to be thinking. This war in Ukraine seems to have become, in Putin’s mind, an existential matter and that if he is defeated in this, then Russia itself will be defeated. Therefore, rather than confront a defeat, he will choose the path of total destruction of Ukraine.

And once he’s done with that, he’ll go after the Baltics, threatening the use of nuclear weapons and saying, “Behold Ukraine - such is your fate if you resist.”