Advance the Clock

Just five days ago, we noted the apparent inevitability of an Israeli strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities. Comparing that possibility to the famous “Doomsday Clock” (made famous by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists), we calculated that, if an Israeli attack is depicted in those terms, then the “strike clock” now reads two minutes until midnight.

And it may be time to advance the hands yet again. Benjamin Netanyahu, the man who will most likely be the next Prime Minister of Israel, has reiterated his determination to halt Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. In a TV interview just weeks before the Israeli election, Mr. Netanyahu stated flatly that “Iran will not be armed with a nuclear weapon.”

As their stockpile of enriched uranium continues to grow, the Iranians will be able to create a small nuclear arsenal, even if Israel strikes key nuclear sites. Timing for the attack is also being influenced by Tehran’s pending acquisition of the S-300 air defense system. When the S-300 achieves operational capability—probably later this year—Israeli operational planning will become much more complicated.

The third factor is the recent change in the White House, and Israeli perceptions that Barack Obama will be more conciliatory toward Iran. So far, the new president has done little to dissuade that notion.

We’d say President Obama’s “comprehensive solution” will soon be overcome by events. The strike clock now reads 90 seconds to midnight—and ticking.

Obama’s overtures to Iran to “unclench your fist” may be making an Israeli preemptive strike on the Iranian nuclear facilities more likely, not less.