the big question in the election for tea leave readers these days is whether the average lead that romney has in the national polls, 1%, is consistent with the electoral college data which shows obama with a three state lead. most if not all of romney’s lead in the national comes from rassmussen and especially gallup, which has been an outlier all year

to test these numbers against each other, i entered the 2010 census pctg of national population for each state, and today’s real clear politics average for each state, when there was one. it turns out that polling data is nonexistent for four or five small states such as alabama, alaska, wyoming, and delaware. for these states i used the common scientific method i learned while working for the U.S. Army, technically know as SWAG, or Super Wild Ass Guess

my results?
obama 46.2
romney 45.4

given that it seems more likely that gallup’s single poll with one nationalized set of assumptions about the electorate is more likely to be wrong than several polls per state each with individual assumptions about the electorate, perhaps more in tune with the pollster’s knowledge of that individual state, i conclude that gallup’s assumptions are like whack, d00d.