re: #149 Targetpractice

Remember “Mitt-mentum”? When any change, however minor, in the polls was heralded as the end? When we lived from poll to poll, every dip treated as a portent of the end?

Nate Silver’s ‘Nowcast’ chart—the rawest, least massaged. The 6Aug—6Sep line isn’t a dip. (The numbers themselves get more trustworthy as the LV polls and increased frequency kick in.) The window for effective action is closing, so the warm and fuzzy part of the campaign is over.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com