re: #169 LudwigVanQuixote

Uhuh,

So if you buy those three mechanisms as established, what is uncertain about losing the caps eventually and facing an eco collapse if we continue to trigger them?

You keep claiming that there is an uncertainty here…

Ok…

Where is it?

You could start with the “uncertaintyguidancenote” from the the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.

Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis

Here it is verbatim:

Table 4. Likelihood Scale

Terminology Likelihood of the occurrence/ outcome
Virtually certain = >99% probability of occurence
Very likely = >90% probability
Likely = >66% probability
About as likely as not = 33 to 66% probability
Unlikely =[less then]33% probability
Very Unlikely =[less than] 10% probability
Exceptionally unlikely =[less than] 1% probability]

ed. I added words in bracket [less than] as I could not post the notation and added the = sign.