re: #10 Testy Toad T

And that’s one reason I can totally see these various congressmen and senators not eventually uniting behind Trump as a nominee. He is very obviously terrible for the immediate future of the Republican Party.

This is a hugely crazy year, completely batshit insane in specific and falsifiable ways, and we’re letting our priors be way, way too strong. In the modern era, there has never been a primary anything like this. Nothing even close. Don’t naively expect a conventional response to a highly unconventional stimulus.

General election polls this far in advance are usually unreliable, even in a normal election cycle.

In the Pan-Galactic Cluster-Fuck that we actually have in this cycle, I think polling the general election is completely impossible this far in advance, and may not ever get close to the mark, even days before the election.

I expect a significant fraction of Trump voters to lie to pollsters about their plans (the ‘shy Tory’ effect, American style).