re: #180 Blind Frog Belly White

There are those who see history as a series of Key Individuals who drive events, and those that see it as a series of movements which largely would have happened without those individuals. One can argue endlessly about this, and people do, but in the end you can’t really KNOW. Personally, I think it’s a combination.

For example, the dynasties that fell - one could reasonably argue that they’d not have lasted in any case, that monarchy’s time had passed, that it’s incompatible with the modern world. Even the British monarchy and aristocracy really only survived as symbols of British history. That fall left a vacuum in countries with no democratic traditions, so you get Fascism and Communism, which would inevitably collide, since both are expansionist ideologies.

There undoubtedly would have been a Russian Revolution, to name one, but something resembling the Provisional Government could have remained in power. The only thing that enabled the Bolshevik takeover was the PG’s insistence on remaining in the war. No war, no October Revolution.

IMO.