re: #71 SteveC

CDC model predicts 63% of Americans will be infected with H1N1

This link was really quite interesting. I followed the synopsis to the full article and I am less worried (that doesn’t mean “not concerned”) about H1N1 after reading it. First, it says we’re in the peak now (weeks 39-43 with 95% confidence). Second, of the 63% that become infected, an estimated 60% of those will be asymptomatic. So about 25% of the US population is expected to be symptomatic. (On a normal year, 5-20% are symptomatic with the seasonal flu causing the death of an estimated 36,000 Americans).

The money quote though is, “The most optimistic assumptions about the CDC vaccination campaign yielded a relative reduction of only 6% in the total number of infected individuals.The actual reduction would certainly be lower because 10-30% of adults vaccinated will not achieve immunity [7,8]. Also a large fraction of the population targeted by influenza A(H1N1) vaccinations are children. Vaccination immunity in children develops at least four weeks after vaccination and would occur too late in the pandemic to make a significant difference to the number of infected in that age group.”

I found this very revealing. While it will most certainly save lives and help those more susceptible to complications, it comes nowhere close to significantly changing the overall picture like I imagined it might. I think one of the best things about all this publicity is that people will take simple things like handwashing, not going to work with a temperature, and monitoring themselves and their family a lot closer. This will hopefully slow the spread and for those who get sick, they will seek treatment faster rather than just “toughing it out.”

FYI, a few relatives of mine have wrapped up bouts with H1N1. No hospitalization required, worked through it with Tamiflu. Not. Fun.