re: #4 Obdicut

The GOP winning the Senate was always a longshot based on the seats up for grabs. I’ll leave it to Silver to see whether the Democrats over/underperformed on the outcomes, but the GOP did close the gap and made gridlock much more likely in the Senate, and then in Congress as a whole.

Losing that many seats in a midterm doesn’t happen all that often.

/and the House and Senate gains for the GOP come close to my own predictions (68/7).