re: #188 Anymouse 🌹🏡😷

Aww, thanks, I don’t have anything better to do right now. My wife is keeping me wrapped in cotton balls and practically prohibiting me from going outside, due to my elevated risk of Covid-19 (latent tuberculosis). She even stopped me from going to the general store here in town to fulfill my vices (rum, smokes, lotto tickets, ramen noodles), insisting she would go.

She won’t even let me go to the mailbox to get our mail.

It is very considerate of your lady to do what she can to protect you.

It’s interesting how folks respond to the pandemic. Some, such as myself, are fine with playing introvert and staying mostly isolated. Others, such as one friend of mine, almost view the lockdown requirement as a personal insult and a burden.

My planning, has been as follows (with, admittedly, little basis in actual data)

I am assuming that Covid will follow the 1918 Flu pandemic. With two more waves, one this fall and the final one in the late winter and early spring.

Looking at the numbers for my county about 23,000 out of a million folks have been diagnosed with Covid. About 2%. (~2200 hospitalized and ~600 deceased) Many of the infections were concentrated in small communities. (A couple of old age communities and certain immigrant communities.)

For personal planning (and a complete guess), I have been assuming twice that number have actually been infected. Which gives me a rough infection total of maybe 5%. For the purposes of the next wave, I am assuming that the % population infected will increase by multiples of that 5%. For a place holder, I am assuming a 15-20% infection total at the end of the second wave. And that the third wave will again increase the % population infected. For a placeholder, I am assuming a 50% infection total at that point.

I am also hoping that the third wave will finally be met by effective public health response.

Anyway, I am looking at significantly increasing my sheltering in place at the end of October. Thursday I got what I expect will be mu final haircut for this year. I will begin to limit my excursions to one or two per week, mostly to the grocery and hardware stores. I will also further curtail my going into buildings other than my house.

As noted, none of this has much basis in data, but provides me with a framework if I ever do find useful data.