If this is a good idea, let’s apply it to all of our affairs. We bet according to the worst that can happen, limited only by our imagination concerning the worst that can happen. In war, our policy would be to always surrender, since we can imagine that we would be defeated and annihilated.

There are some people who do worst-case thinking in a way that the majority do not. Consider the survivalists. Shall we all stock up on food and other supplies in anticipation of the end of the world? I think that Glen Beck has encouraged some thinking along the lines of Chicken Little scenarios with respect to the Obama administration. Is that the right way to think?

The sensible thing is to try to weight the risks of whatever you do or don’t do. That will be difficult. But it leads to very extreme and self-destructive behavior to consider only the worst that can happen. It has been said that the perfect is the enemy of the good. That is, the search for the perfect can be very problematic and counterproductive. And a search for a perfect defense against the worst that can happen, in all things, would lead to a horrific existence.