re: #153 The Mongoose

I am not privy to their methodology and it would take a long time to fully understand it even if I was. But here’s where I’m coming from.

I can think of only 3 possibilities:

1) Obama is up 8, (+/-2.4%, the poll’s MOE)
2) This was an outlier poll
3) Something is wrong with Pew’s sample

I find #1 extremely unlikely given the average of 5 other polls is Obama +1.8.

#2 is exactly 5% likely.

I think it’s more likely #3 than either of the others. I could be wrong. We can’t know for sure.

Actually, given the average of the other polls #2, that it is an outlier, is indeed the most likely. This is especially true given that most of Pew’s polls are much closer to the average.