Dammit, I always miss the threads about things I actually know.

I’m just peaking in and can’t stick around to chat =(

From what I’ve seen, since the beginning of April there has been a series of he-said/she-said denials and confirmations and back-tracking and weaseling around about whether or not the transfer did happen.

Israel has made clear that they see no difference between Hizballah and Lebanon anymore, and a war in the north will be considered a war against Lebanon as well. They have also said that if any Syrian weaponry is used by Hizballah in a conflict, they would not restrain themselves to fighting in Lebanon only. (In other words, Syria would become a battlefield as well).

I believe it was the Arab paper, The National, that quoted an unnamed US official saying that the Israelis ALMOST attacked the Scuds when they were being transferred, but the US managed to talk them down. The quote included the official saying he couldn’t confirm planes were in the sky or anything like that, but it was very close. Part of the US talking Israel down was for the US to bring up the issue with the Syrians, which it sounds like they have done.

We’ll see how this unfolds, but there certainly seems to be grounds for increased tension up there. It’s really jarring to think about just how much Hizballah has managed to reconsolidate after the 2006 war. They have more weapons, more advanced weapons, better training, and are all around better prepared for a conflict.

Fortunately, Israel’s army has much improved since the lax days prior to the 2006 war.

Sorry, I ended up rambling quite a bit. Not much to do but wait and see how things play out.