re: #177 aagcobb

As usual, the base will be splintered between numerous candidates, some of whom will be able to keep their campaigns deep into the primaries with the aid of billionaire patrons like Adelson and Friess. The real race for the nomination is between a handful of candidates for the support of the establishment. I learned this in 2012 when I didn’t think it possible that the architect of Romneycare could win the GOP nomination, but he did anyway. Charles called it perfectly when he said early on that the nomination was Romney’s.

I don’t think the 2012 pattern can repeat indefinitely. The GOP base is getting increasingly irritated at establishment candidates like McCain and Romney, and it is clear that GOP primaries are getting less controllable (from the GOP establishment POV).