re: #205 wheat-dogg

China has not yet adapted to the concepts of contractual obligations. Within China, business deals are closed on the basis of guanxi — personal connections and friendships — and not on promises committed to paper. For that reason, Chinese businesspeople consider arrangements with fellow Chinese far more important than those with foreigners, despite contractual agreements.

Which could get interesting with the Power of Siberia gas pipeline. Enormous investment by Russia to get a pipeline to China, which needs new supplies of gas to replace coal but has alternate supplies (although less reliable I think) with Central Asian republics. Gazprom is making the same “think about the long term future” noises, but China doesn’t have to cooperate. If they want to blow up the Russian budget, the Chinese can wait until the pipeline is finished and whenever they want decide “eh, thanks but no thanks”.

I’m pretty convinced if there’s an outside power that cripples Russia, it’s not going to be the US or NATO or the EU: it’s going to be China. China is quietly taking control of key parts of Central Asia via the Belt and Road project, and Russia has been amazingly oblivious.