So, if you’re a country nominally in Putin’s orbit and watching how badly Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is going, would you:

1) send your own troops in to help, knowing that the rest of the world would impose the same sanctions on you?
2) sit back and let things play out;
3) side with Ukraine, knowing that Russia is a paper tiger and that the EU/NATO is the future of Europe?

I’m thinking most countries would rationally pick 2. Perhaps the people of those countries would like to see 3, but 2 is best we could hope for.

Anyone who thinks jumping in on the losing side is a winning bet, knowing that sanctions can ruin Russia, let alone a poor nation like Belarus (ranks 78th in the world at $68 billion). All but a handful of US states have a larger economy than Belarus. For comparison, California, Texas, and New York State each have a larger economy than Russia (and on per capita basis, it’s even more stark).