Obama lost AZ in 2008 and 2012 by nearly identical margins:

A bit over 200,000.

One would think that if there was a demographic surge it could have been more evident in changes between those two elections.

Now the gap in 2004 was much larger:

But I don’t know how much of that is due to how weak Kerry was as a candidate.

Note that the turnout in these three years:

2012: 74.36
2008: 77.69
2004: 77.10

… was higher than in many states.

Anyway, I guess the point I’m getting at is that there would have to be noticeable suppression of Republican turnout for Hillary to carry the state. Drumpfskind may be very unappealing to the Mormons, but AZ is full of old white folk and they are Drumpfskind’s constituency.