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Wednesday Afternoon Hopen

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looking closely1/21/2009 1:37:06 pm PST

Great article at “The New Majority”:
It hurts…

Stay at home voters cost McCain the victory, NOT “Obamania”.


How much of a role did the stay-at-home Republicans play in the defeat of John McCain? A good deal more of a role than “Obamania” played among the eagerly-heralded freshet of new college-age and black Democratic voters. When the numbers were tallied up, the actual increases in new Democratic voters among young people and blacks were surprisingly minimal. In the first place, although voter turnout in 2008 increased from 122 million to 127 million in 2004, that increase was short stuff compared to the increase – some 20 million – who showed up at the polls in 2004 over 2000. The number of black voters in 2008 nudged up, but only slightly, from 11% of voters in 2004 to 13%; and the under-30 vote moved upwards, but only marginally (less than 1%). The significant number was the fall in turnout by Republicans. In Ohio, the election’s bellwether state, Obama outscored McCain by 51% to 47%. But Obama’s majority was not a product of more or newer voters (in fact, he tallied only 45,000 more than John Kerry in 2004). It was because 275,000 Ohio voters who had voted for George W. Bush failed to vote for McCain, as overall voter participation in Ohio dropped 13% below the predicted level of 80%. “There seems only one plausible explanation,” concluded Michael Massing, “Many Republicans stayed home on election day.” The same trend prevailed nationally. While more minority and under-30 voters turned out in 2008, “this increase was offset by a drop of several million in the number of white voters.” They saw nothing to vote for, and they stayed home.

Possibly, they were discouraged by the omnipresent shilling for Obama by just about every mainstream media outlet. People aren’t going to get up and wait in line three hours to vote, if they think their vote won’t matter.