re: #235 The Very Reverend Battleaxe of Knowledge

All of their tests have been failures. The first was perfectly consistent with nothing happening at all, just the HE going off. The second was a few hundred tons, like a single-point failure of a two-point air lens primary. The third supposedly got up to 6-8 kilotons and they seem to be stuck at that—remember at 12 kilotons, India’s first test was so disappointing they gave up on the whole idea for 25 years.

We know how much plutonium NK could have possibly cooked in their little experimental reactor, and they’ve used up close to, if not more than, half at this point. If they have more than we think, that’s bad for them because that means they cooked it too long—which FWIW is my diagnosis for why their bombs don’t work.

We have no idea how much these experimental devices weigh, except that it’s a certain thing they have no way to deliver them anywhere but maybe South Korea. Getting people in a swivet about North Korean nukes is just irresponsible sensationalism. South Africa had a more credible deterrent than that.

That may have bee true a couple years ago. It’s not true now.

Their last test was estimated by multiple international agencies as about 70-280 kt, so they’re WAY beyond 6-8 kt. Indeed, their last 3 detonations have all been higher than 6-8 kt. Not sure about miniaturization, but they also tested missiles that could reach the continental US.

Testing is provocative, so there’s a balance between demonstrating you now have a credible deterrent and appearing to pose a significant first strike threat that would elicit a preventive attack. Once you demonstrate that 1) you can reach your opponent, and 2) you can inflict significant damage, you’ve established the former, further testing only pushes you toward the latter.