re: #239 Belafon

(tweet) Put another way: The Democratic coalition has picked up educated and high-propensity voters; the national GOP coalition has become more reliant on Trump/MAGA voters who are less engaged when he’s off the ballot. But recent history shows they do turn out when he’s on the ballot.

Exactly, this is nicely set to make sure you don’t count any election post-Dobbs, where Dems have consistently outperformed polling by multiple percent.

All this guy has is a bunch of aging speculation and reliance on some invisible mass of new voters which won’t show up for any other election, and assuming there isn’t another not-so-invisible mass of new voters which has been showing up for every other election.