RE: # 278 Yashmak

The same was true of Imperial Japan and its attack on Pearl Harbor, there was no way Japan could defeat the United States due to the huge advantage the United States had in population and industrial strength. However the Japanese viewed the United States as “soft” and “weak” and expected the United States to withdraw from the Pacific and Asia. North Korea could easily make the same miscalculation if given repeated signals of weakness by the United States (which has already done so with the seizure of US journalists and the testing of missiles this year). The likely area of miscalculation is shipping near North Korea. Given the tepid responses so far by the Obama Administration to NK aggression the NK leadership may well harass shipping or more likely try and sell nuclear technology and ship it via international waters. An American response (or that of our allies) to either show the flag in waters near NK or by seizing NK ships could (and likely) would lead to a showdown. If the NK leadership could not survive internally by backing down to the US and its allies in such a case (a remember there are no retirement programs for these guys, it is rule or die—law of the jungle) we have a huge problem because it will be in the interest of North Korean leadership to escalate the problem and then all bets are off. For two historical examples of threat escalation and miscalculation leading to war see: Barbara Tuchman, “The Guns of August.” and A.J.P. Taylor, “Origins of the Second World War.” This is a seriously bad situation that will probably get alot worse.