re: #281 Dangerman

Imo job approval is not a reasonable surrogate for “who I’m gonna vote for in 6 mos”

historically, presidential job approval has been a decent indicator of an incumbent’s re-election chances. Obama in June 2012 and Bush in 2004 were hovering around 48-50%. Trump in June 2020 was down around 40%, as was GHW Bush in 1992. Clinton was well above 50% at the same stage in 1996; as was Reagan in 1984.

That said, this election is a historical outlier. We haven’t had a major party nominate someone three times in a row since FDR. We haven’t had a rematch since 1956. We haven’t had a former president seek to return to the office since TR.